A recent study conducted by UVM scientists forecasts that flooding under climate change could leave Vermont with several billion dollars’ worth of damage.

The study was published in January and suggests that property damage from flooding over the next 100 years could total as much as $5.3 billion.

Alumnus Jesse Gourevitch was the lead author on the study, working as a doctoral student in the Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources. Co-authors included professors in the Department of Geography, the Gund Institute for Environment and the Rubenstein School. Gourevitch’s interest in researching the topic stemmed from a desire to look at how green infrastructure and nature-based solutions could reduce the negative impacts of climate change, specifically flooding.

What is the extent of the damage predicted by the study?

According to Gourevitch, the research predicts most of the damage will come along the Winooski River and its tributaries, where many of the state’s population centers are — Burlington, Montpelier and more. Not only can floods damage homes and businesses, but they can also wipe away trees and wreck roads and bridges.

The study found that over a 100-year timespan, property damage from floods at a baseline could cost about $2.13 billion. Factoring in the effects of climate change on flooding, the cost for repairs could run all the way up to $5.3 billion.

To reach those figures, Gourevitch said, the team developed “a model that maps the extent and depth of flooding for a range of different types of flood events. We then overlay that map with the locations of properties within the basin and use depth-damage functions to estimate the damage to each property during that flood event as a proportion of its total value.”

Another aspect of Gourevitch’s research surrounded the specific types of properties most susceptible to flooding. He pointed to concerns that mobile homes and other lower-value properties are disproportionately exposed to flood risk.

But researchers have ideas about how those inequities and damages could be alleviated.

One way researchers are thinking about mitigating the potential damage is through “floodplain restoration,” said Gourevitch.

Floodplains are areas of land that absorb water from floods and limit how much of that water can reach communities. By reshaping riverbanks, restoring wetlands and adding vegetation in important floodplains, flood-related damages could be reduced by 20%, the researchers say.

Those preventative measures can be made a reality through the work of conservation groups and state agencies, Gourevitch said.