The Northeast is a potential hotspot of invasion under projected future climate conditions, with a large increase in the variety of invasive species expected (Bellard et al. 2014). Forest managers and the landowners in the region are likely already familiar with many of the invasive species that have established in upland forests, such as barberry, multi-flora rose, bittersweet, and non-native species of honeysuckle and buckthorn. Though there is substantial uncertainty about which invasive plant species will benefit most and at which sites (Merow et al 2017), models indicate that species with invasive characteristics will disproportionately benefit from projected climate changes due to broad environmental tolerances, extended periods of leaf-out, more effective exploitation of changed environments, and more aggressive colonization of new areas (Dukes et al. 2009, Fridley 2012, Hellmann et al. 2008, Willis et al. 2010, Wolkovich et al. 2014). 

Forests that have experienced an increase in disturbances such as flooding, ice storms, or drought, are especially susceptible to higher levels of colonization by invasive plant species. This compromises the adaptive capacity of the forest by limiting the regeneration and planting success of native and desired tree species, and could hinder other management strategies (Wiedlich et al. 2020, Link III et al. 2018). Potential declines in native plants may also provide opportunities for new invaders to fill vacated niches or existing invaders to exploit fluctuating resources (Finch et al. 2021). Additionally, there are invasive species that could expand their ranges in response to climate conditions and become problematic in areas they have not previously been found. One such example is the elmleaf blackberry, which is already invasive farther south in Delaware and Maryland, and forms dense thickets that are capable of excluding other shrubs and understory plants, as well as hindering overstory regeneration (Bradley et al. 2020).

Invasive species can create a host of problems within the ecosystems where they become established. The dominance of even a few new species reduces both the native species and structural diversity of stands, rendering them more vulnerable to future impacts (Hejda et al. 2009; Jäger et al. 2009). Both reed canary grass and Japanese barberry, for example, have demonstrated the ability to reduce native species’ regeneration through ground cover dominance, resource competition, and even altered hydrology (Weilhoefer et al 2017; Kurtz & Hansen, 2014; Gebauer et al. 2014; Kurtz & Hansen, 2018; Miniat et al. 2021). Replacement of native species typically reduces the habitat value for wildlife and pollinators, which can contribute to other new stressors to threaten more organisms than just those in direct competition (Burghardt 2010, Tallamy 2009; David et al. 2017).

Invasive species can sometimes fundamentally alter the character of the sites they invade. In riparian areas and on slopes, invasives can increase soil erosion, sedimentation of streams, and degradation of aquatic habitat (Seavy et al. 2009). If sufficiently dominant, they can also alter the fire regimes of the ecosystems they invade, potentially altering the system permanently, and in some cases leading to more severe wildfire (Dibble et al. 2007; Brooks et al. 2006).

Some uncertainties that remain regarding the potential future impact of invasive plant species include: which current and/or novel invasive species will thrive at specific sites, whether climate change will support or hinder a given invasive species, and whether a given invasive species will irrevocably alter a site, or if it can assimilate to the native ecosystem (Merow et al 2017).