FEMC: Tracking Shifts in Disturbance Regimes

Change Type:
Established Invasives

Established invasive pest species are exotic insects that have naturalized in the region after many years. These pests cause damage to several species of tree in northeastern forests. In comparison to novel invasive pests, established invasives often have a predictable life cycle that is easy to anticipate and overlaps with the life cycles of native predators. Therefore, established invasives cause disturbance in forests, but natural ecosystem dynamics can help to regulate uncontrolled spread. These species include the Lymantria dispar and the Browntail Moth.

Frequency (number of years observed) and maximum area damaged in single extent by agent, with the size of the circle indicating total damage caused to date. Click and drag to zoom into chart.
Browntail Moth

Browntail moth is a non-native invasive species originally introduced to North America in the late 1890s. Since initial infestations after its introduction, browntail moth has caused little damage in the northeastern forest until the last few years. Using the 100 years of data aggregated in the FEMC Northeastern Forest Health Atlas we extracted records of damage attributed to browntail moth across the region and assessed outbreak events using annual forest health reports.

Analysis

STATE:
Frequency is represented by three metrics, 1) the number of years since the last outbreak started (oubreaks determined from state and federal forest health and pest reports), 2) the total acres damaged during the duration of the outbreak, and 3) the annual acres damaged.
Severity is represented by two metrics, 1) the number of acres of damage categoriezed as mortality and 2) the percent of total acres damaged categorized as mortality
Extent is calculated as the total area (acres) damaged by the selected pest
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Disturbance Trend Summary

The outbreak that started in 2015 is the only severe outbreak of browntail moth in the aerial survey data record.

There is a significant increase in the overall trend in the total acres damaged by browntail moth.

The only year with damage categorized as mortality in the aerial detection survey record was 1997, causing the overall trend to decrease

Highlights

Additional Resources

Data Program Years Org Data Products
L. dispar

Lymantria dispar (formerly known as gypsy moth) is a non-native pest originally introduced to North America in the 1860s and established in the northeast since the early 1900s. Using the 100 years of data aggregated in the FEMC Northeastern Forest Health Atlas we extracted records of damage attributed toL. dispar across the region and assessed outbreak events using annual forest health reports.

Analysis

STATE:
Frequency is represented by three metrics, 1) the number of years since the last outbreak started (oubreaks determined from state and federal forest health and pest reports), 2) the total acres damaged during the duration of the outbreak, and 3) the annual acres damaged.
Severity is represented by two metrics, 1) the number of acres of damage categoriezed as mortality and 2) the percent of total acres damaged categorized as mortality
Extent is calculated as the total area (acres) damaged by the selected pest
legend for chart
legend for chart
legend for chart
Use SHIFT+Scroll to zoom

Disturbance Trend Summary

There are too few outbreak events in the historical record to analyze the trend in outbreaks, however, the number of years between outbreaks has increased over time indicating that outbreaks may be happening less often.

The overall trend in the total acres damaged by L. dispar and the percent of all damage that is categorized as mortality are increasing significantly.

Highlights

  • The 1981 outbreak is the worst in the history of L. dispar in North America damaging more than 6 million acres across the region.
  • In 1989 a fungus - Entomophaga maimaiga - that is a native biological control to L. dispar in Japan was first found established in the region and impacting L. dispar populations in North America. It significantly contributed to the decline of the 1980s outbreak and to L. dispar population management since. In 2015 and 2016 conditions in the northeast were too try for E. maimaiga resulting in a dramatic increase in L. dispar populations. 1 2

Additional Resources

Data Program Years Org Data Products