DISADVANTAGE/ANTI-USA AXIS

THERE IS NOW A RISK THAT CHINA-RUSSIA-INDIA MAY FORM AN ANTI-USA AXIS

BRINK: WE ARE NOW AT RISK OF MOVING INTO A NEW BI-POLARITY

Hans Binnendijk, 1999 Autumn; director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, The Washington Quarterly, SECTION: EDITORIALS; Vol. 22, No. 4; Pg. 7 HEADLINE: Back to Bipolarity? // ln-acs-11-11-99

Given the evidently polarizing effect of these four worldwide trends, one must ask whether the life cycle of the sixth international system is also moving in the direction of eventual bipolarity. A look at recent relations among the major powers indicates that this is a real possibility.

WHAT RUSSIA, CHINA, AND INDIA DECIDE TO DO WILL DETERMINE IF THERE IS A NEW BI-POLARITY CREATED

Hans Binnendijk, 1999 Autumn; director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, The Washington Quarterly, SECTION: EDITORIALS; Vol. 22, No. 4; Pg. 7 HEADLINE: Back to Bipolarity? // ln-acs-11-11-99

States in transition constitute a second group that are hopefully moving toward market democracies. The most important of these transition states are China, Russia, and India. Their ultimate orientation may be the most decisive determinant of how the more mature system will look.

UNIQUENESS: WE CAN AVOID A NEW GLOBAL BI-POLARITY BY NOT DRIVING THE AXIS POWERS INTO ANTI-USA COOPERATION

Hans Binnendijk, 1999 Autumn; director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, The Washington Quarterly, SECTION: EDITORIALS; Vol. 22, No. 4; Pg. 7 HEADLINE: Back to Bipolarity? // ln-acs-11-11-99

A new bipolar world is not inevitable. History need not repeat itself. The central challenge is protecting U.S. interests as they are affected by these potentially polarizing trends without driving China, Russia, India, and rogue states further into collaboration against us.

UNIQUENESS: RUSSIA-CHINA-INDIA AXIS IS NOW BEGINNING TO FORM, BUT WON’T IF USA ACTS APPROPRIATELY

TYLER MARSHALL, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999, Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: ANTI-NATO AXIS COULD POSE THREAT, EXPERTS SAY;  U.S. ANALYSTS EYEING CHINA-INDIA-RUSSIA COALITION SAY THAT, POST-KOSOVO, THERE IS A SENSE AMONG ALL THREE THAT AMERICAN POWER MUST SOMEHOW BE CHECKED. // ln-10/99-acs

"Right now, you have flirting," said Charles Williams Maynes, president of the Eurasia Foundation, a Washington-based think tank. "I don't know where this is going to go. If we play our cards right, it's going to go nowhere."

But if the relationships progress, Maynes said, "then you basically have the world's heartland--2 billion people in China and India--allied with a formidable technological power in Russia. That would be a disaster for the United States."

DRIVEN BY EVENTS, RUSSIA, INDIA, AND CHINA COULD FORM AN AXIS PARTNERSHIP

TYLER MARSHALL, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999, Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: ANTI-NATO AXIS COULD POSE THREAT, EXPERTS SAY;  U.S. ANALYSTS EYEING CHINA-INDIA-RUSSIA COALITION SAY THAT, POST-KOSOVO, THERE IS A SENSE AMONG ALL THREE THAT AMERICAN POWER MUST SOMEHOW BE CHECKED. // ln-10/99-acs

The political desire for closer cooperation is reflected in high-level rhetoric about the need for greater cooperation, usually mixed with thinly veiled anti-Western comments or calls for a "multipolar world"--code for counterbalancing America's global dominance.

During a visit to New Delhi in December, Russia's then-prime minister, Yevgeny M. Primakov, floated the idea of a "strategic triangle" committing the three nations to a policy of regional peace and stability.

So far, the concept has not been fleshed out. But Western analysts see a series of converging interests among the nations that, if driven by events, could easily add substance to talk of strategic partnerships.

RUSSIA-INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS HAVE HUGE POTENTIAL TO BLOOM INTO NEW PARTNERSHIPS

TYLER MARSHALL, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999, Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: ANTI-NATO AXIS COULD POSE THREAT, EXPERTS SAY;  U.S. ANALYSTS EYEING CHINA-INDIA-RUSSIA COALITION SAY THAT, POST-KOSOVO, THERE IS A SENSE AMONG ALL THREE THAT AMERICAN POWER MUST SOMEHOW BE CHECKED. // ln-10/99-acs

China's relations with India remain cool and labor under decades of mistrust. But the two agreed in June to launch a security dialogue, and they have restarted talks to resolve a decades-old border dispute. Beijing stayed clear of the recent crisis over the Kashmir region, in which Indian troops clashed with insurgents backed by Pakistan, a longtime ally of China.

Meanwhile, Moscow's ties with New Delhi have revived after a lull that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE POISED FOR CLOSE COOPERATION

TYLER MARSHALL, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999, Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: ANTI-NATO AXIS COULD POSE THREAT, EXPERTS SAY;  U.S. ANALYSTS EYEING CHINA-INDIA-RUSSIA COALITION SAY THAT, POST-KOSOVO, THERE IS A SENSE AMONG ALL THREE THAT AMERICAN POWER MUST SOMEHOW BE CHECKED. // ln-10/99-acs

Once-chilly Sino-Soviet relations began to thaw nearly a decade ago and have matured to the point that Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin has declared Russia and China to be "strategic partners." Once-divisive border disputes have been resolved, and the transfer of Russian military technology to Beijing has steadily increased.

RUSSIA-CHINA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP CAN BE VERY, VERY REAL

TYLER MARSHALL, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999, Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: ANTI-NATO AXIS COULD POSE THREAT, EXPERTS SAY;  U.S. ANALYSTS EYEING CHINA-INDIA-RUSSIA COALITION SAY THAT, POST-KOSOVO, THERE IS A SENSE AMONG ALL THREE THAT AMERICAN POWER MUST SOMEHOW BE CHECKED. // ln-10/99-acs

"Russia and China have a real military cooperation and converging interests on a range of international issues, and that's what a partnership is about," said Peter Rodman, a former Republican presidential advisor and currently an analyst at the Washington-based Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom in Washington. "They call it a strategic partnership, and in this case, it's real."

THREATS TO RUSSIA CAUSE IT TO TURN AWAY FROM EUROPE AND TOWARDS CHINA

Stephen F Norris, The Herald (Glasgow), December 15, 1999, SECTION: Pg. 16 HEADLINE: The root causes of Russian alarm // ln-acs 12/18/99

At a time when the enlargement of the EU is taxing minds, it is tragic that Russia feels that almost by extension a hostile parallel expansion of Nato's membership will follow. Recent events in Kosovo and Chechnya have led Russia to turn away from Europe and seek succour instead from China, which leads me towards one inescapable conclusion - namely that the creation of a secure, prosperous, socially just Greater Europe and the existence of Nato are totally incompatible.