DISADVANTAGE/OIL

ANSWER: WE NEED MORE OIL SOURCES TO PREVENT A FUTURE OIL SHORTAGE

OIL DEMAND WILL GROW, MEANING NEW SUPPLIES NEE TO BE BROUGHT ONLINE

Foster Natural Gas Report December 9, 1999 SECTION: Report No. 2263; Pg. 4 HEADLINE: CONFERENCE ON ENERGY GEOPOLITICS HEARS DOE SECRETARY RICHARDSON RAISE SERIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENT HIGH PETROLEUM PRICES // ln-acs 12/18/99

Richardson's Speech: However, Richardson's general remarks to the conference on the "Geopolitics of Energy into the 21st Century" reflected several guest speakers' optimism as to longer term prospects for expansion of oil, natural gas and power markets worldwide. Everyone appeared to agree that oil demand will likely increase sharply and oil import dependence will also rise at least over the next two or three decades. Yet, the sources, Richardson observed, have spread beyond the Middle East to Africa, the Caspian, and Latin America.

MIDDLE EAST OIL SUPPLY IS OVERESTIMATED BY 50%, A GLOBAL OIL SHORTAGE IS COMING!

In addition, and perhaps more importantly, reported levels of proved Middle East oil reserves are suspect. Some credible reserve estimates are less than half the published amounts. If these lower estimates prove to be correct, the consequences will be enormous because the time during which world oil production will be able to satisfy current demand would be very short. What follows would be a prolonged decline in world oil availability, a situation that would only worsen over time. There will not be much help from the rest of the world. For many years, much less oil has been discovered in new fields worldwide than has been produced. Tar sands and oil shales, often mentioned as a substitute for conventional oil, have to be mined and extensively processed before utilization. The entire operation is complicated, expensive, and produces relatively little oil compared to the effort expended. Much worse, however, is the high-energy cost. After drilling, blasting, loading, hauling, grinding, heating, and waste disposal, net energy recovery is quite low.