DISADVANTAGE/OIL

ANSWER: RISING OIL PRICES RISK GLOBAL INSTABILITY

GLOBAL INSTABILITY IF OIL PRICES KEEP RISING

The New York Times January 30, 2000 HEADLINE: Consumers Hit As Fuel Prices Climb Sharply //Ixnx arf

Mehdi Varsi, oil analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, fears "a lot of global instability" if Opec allows the oil price to go to $30. "We cannot rule out the oil price spiking upwards," he says. "And beyond the $30 level there must be real concern about the knock-on effect on inflation, interest rates and global economic growth."

CONTINUED HIGH OIL PRICES WELL FUEL GLOBAL INFLATION

ROBERT CORZINE, Financial Times (London), November 17,1999, HEADLINE: WORLD NEWS: A delicate balancing act for Opec: Next year ministers may need to boost oil output without letting prices fall//Ixnx hxm

To some industry experts who worry about a sudden price jump this winter, such claims verge on the irresponsible, given that oil still plays a central role in the world economy, especially in emerging economics, many of which are only now recovering. Although the OECD yesterday dismissed fears that a further oil price surge would fuel global inflationary pressures, any sustained rise would at least be a factor in the level of world interest rates.