DISADVANTAGE/OIL

DESTABILIZED SAUDI ARABIA THREATENS HUGE IMPACTS

SAUDI ARABIA IS ON THE BRINK OF A CIVIL WAR THAT COULD DRAW IN THE U.S.

STEVEN R. DAVID, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, HEADLINE: Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars //Ixnx hxm

There is something to this view. Most civil wars do not directly threaten the United States or its allies. While recent internal conflicts have raised humanitarian concerns, none has seriously affected American security or economic interests. This, however, was largely a matter of luck. The United States should recognize a vital and sobering truth: that Russia, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia all now stand on the brink of civil war, conflicts that would have devastating consequences for the United States. These consequences are not the traditional dangers of state-to-state aggression, such as outside attack or invasion. Though largely ignored by scholars and policymakers, who remain fixated on the idea of international conflict, internal war has emerged as a principal threat to security in the post-Cold War world.

A CIVIL WAR IN SAUDI ARABIA WILL HAVE GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

STEVEN R. DAVID, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, HEADLINE: Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars //lxnx hxm

AS LIKELY as is conflict in Mexico, there is even less hope for Saudi Arabia -- and if the kingdom succumbs to civil war, the outcome will be catastrophic not just for the United States but for the world. A country built on contradictions, Saudi Arabia is extremely vulnerable to internal war. The same factors that have kept its regime in power -- the oil economy, the military, Islam, the royal family -- could now fuel an insurrection. Meanwhile, global dependence on Saudi oil will only increase in coming years, making an interruption in its flow even more dangerous.

IF SAUDI ARABIA FALLS INTO A CIVIL WAR, THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL SUFFER SEVERELY

STEVEN R. DAVID, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, HEADLINE: Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars //Ixnx hxm

CONFLICTS FOUGHT within the borders of a single state send shock waves far beyond their frontiers. To begin with, internal wars risk destroying assets the United States needs. Were the Persian Gulf oil fields destroyed in a Saudi civil war, the American economy (and those of the rest of the developed world) would suffer severely. Internal wars can also unleash threats that stable governments formerly held in check. As central governments weaken and fall, weapons of mass destruction may fall into the hands of rogue leaders or anti-American factions. More directly, internal wars endanger American citizens living and traveling abroad. Liberia will not be the last place America sends helicopters to rescue its stranded citizens. Finally, internal wars, when they erupt on U.S. borders, threaten to destabilize America itself. U.S. intervention in Haiti was spurred, in large part, by fear of the flood of refugees poised to enter the United States.

A CIVIL WAR IN SAUDI ARABIA COULD SPILL OVER TO OTHER AREAS

STEVEN R. DAVID, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, HEADLINE: Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars // lxnx hxm

All of these dangers are grave enough to warrant consideration; what makes them even more serious is the fact that their impact on America is largely unintended. Being unintended, the spill-off effects of civil wars are not easily deterred, which creates unique challenges to American interests. U.S. policymakers have traditionally tried to sway foreign leaders through a simple formula: ensure that the benefits of defying America are outweighed by the punishment that the United States will inflict if defied. That calculus, however, no longer applies when there is no single, rational government in place to deter. This raises the cost to America; if the United States (or any country) cannot deter a threat, it must turn to actual self-defense or preemption instead. Unlike deterrence, these strategies are enormously difficult to carry out and in some cases (such as preventing the destruction of the Saudi oil fields) would be impossible. Without deterrence as a policy option, Washington loses its most effective means of safeguarding its interests.

CIVIL WAR IN SAUDI ARABIA WOULD HALT OIL PRODUCTION FOR AT LEAST SIX MONTHS, WHICH WOULD DEVASTATE THE ENTIRE WORLD AND BRING ON A POSSIBLE DEPRESSION

STEVEN R. DAVID, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, HEADLINE: Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars /lxnx hxm

In a Saudi civil war, the oil fields will be a likely battle site, as belligerents seek the revenue and international recognition that come with control of petroleum. For either side to cripple oil production would not be difficult. The real risk lies not with the onshore oil wells themselves, which are spread over a 100-by-300 mile area, but in the country's dependence on only a few critical processing sites. Destruction of these facilities would paralyze production and take at least six months to repair. If unconventional weapons such as biological agents were used in the oil fields, production could be delayed for several more months until workers were convinced it was safe to return.

Stanching the flow of Saudi oil would devastate the United States and much of the world community. Global demand for oil (especially in Asia) will increase in the coming decades, while non-Persian Gulf supplies are expected to diminish. A crisis in the planet's largest oil producer, with reserves estimated at 25 percent of the world's total, would have a massive and protracted impact on the price and availability of oil worldwide. As the disruptions of 1973 and 1979 showed, the mere threat of diminished oil supply can cause panic buying, national hysteria, gas lines, and infighting, Prices for oil shot up 400 percent in 1973, 150 percent in 1979, and 50 percent (in just 15 days) in 1990. The oil shocks of the 1970s threw the United States into recession, causing spiraling inflation and a decline in savings rates that plagues the U.S. economy even now. Trillions of dollars were lost worldwide. And all this occurred at a time when the United States was less dependent on foreign petroleum than it is now. Cutting the Saudi pipeline today would cause a severe worldwide recession or depression. Short of physical attack, it is the gravest threat imaginable to American interests.

SAUDI ARABIA IS ONE OF THREE COUNTRIES THAT IS LIKELY TO ERUPT INTO A CIVIL WAR THAT WOULD SPILL OVER INTO THE UNITED STATES AND ENDANGER HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF AMERICANS

STEVEN R. DAVID, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, HEADLINE: Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars //Ixnx hxm

Where are these new threats likely to crop up? And which should the United States be concerned with? Two criteria must guide policymakers in answering these questions. First is the actual likelihood of civil war in any particular state. American interests would be endangered by a war in Canada, but the prospect is so improbable it can safely be ignored. Second is the impact of a civil war on the United States; would it threaten vital American security and economic concerns? Future conflict in Sierra Leone may be plausible, but it would have such a negligible impact on the United States that it does not justify much attention.

Only three countries, in fact, meet both criteria: Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. Civil conflict in Mexico would produce waves of disorder that would spill into the United States, endangering the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans, destroying a valuable export market, and sending a torrent of refugees northward. A rebellion in Saudi Arabia could destroy its ability to export oil, the oil on which the industrialized world depends. And internal war in Russia could devastate Europe and trigger the use of nuclear weapons.

Of course, civil war in a cluster of other states could seriously harm American interests. These countries include Indonesia, Venezuela, the Philippines, Egypt, Turkey, Israel, and China. In none, however, are the stakes as high or the threat of war as imminent.

EXTREMIST RELIGIOUS OPPOSITION COULD TURN VIOLENT IF THE SAUDI ECONOMY FALTERS

STEVEN R. DAVID, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, HEADLINE: Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars // lxnx hxm

Religion in Saudi Arabia also does more to undermine the current regime than to prop up its legitimacy. Since the Gulf War, when the Saudi government welcomed "Infidel" troops from the West, Sunni Muslim religious leaders have launched unprecedented challenges to the royal family. Sunni notables have urged the government to sever ties with non-Muslim countries, questioned the royal family's business dealings, and called for the creation of a consultative council to assist the king in governing. Even if all of these demands are met (so far only the last has been addressed), the religious threat to the regime will persist. This extremist opposition is no longer just made up of the lower classes and fringe elements that violently took over Mecca's Grand Mosque in 1979. Instead, it includes well-educated members of the middle class, many of them from the Najd region -- the traditional power base of the royal family. They enjoy substantial support in the cities and among the younger generation, especially those with religious educations who found no jobs waiting for them on graduation. And their ranks are swollen with the hundreds of disgruntled Saudi volunteers who fought a holy war against the Russians in Afghanistan, only to return home and find a government of questionable Islamic purity in a state where the standard of living had plummeted. Complicating matters still further are the 500,000 Saudi Shiites in the oilrich east, whose 1980 riots shook the foundations of the Saudi regime. As the central government runs out of cash, its declining ability to buy their support may ignite a renewal of their violent protests.

IF ISLAMIC FORCES TAKE CONTROL OF SAUDI ARABIA A HUGE WAR WILL OCCUR AND THE USA WILL BE PULLED IN

DeWAYNE WICKHAM, Sept. 5, 1996 [Gannett News Service. HEADLINE: Toppling Saddam could bring more grief than relief to the United States\\VT98-hovden]

If Islamic radicals take control of Iraq, Saudi Arabia -- the linchpin of U.S. policy in the gulf region -will be put at risk. And the domino effect of the loss of Saudi Arabia and its tremendous energy reserves could bring about a far more costly war than the Persian Gulf conflict.

THE SAUDI REGIME IS UNSTABLE THE SITUATION COULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL

Mohamed H. Heikal; Yomiuri Shimbun, 1996 [The Daily Yomiuri, April 29; HEADLINE: INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD;Strains showing in House of Al-Saud//VT98-hovden]

With so much at stake, it is hard to see how the shaping of its present can be left to the vagaries of one family, the ruling House of Al-Saud, and the direction of its future to the will of one empire, the United States. Especially when, as now seems to be the case, the situation threatens to slip out of the control of both, with unmistakable signs of strains and stresses at the heart of the ruling establishment beginning to emerge in defiance of a political and media cover-up. The situation is rendered all the more critical by growing tensions between the forces of traditionalism and modernization. Since its creation in the early 1930s, Saudi Arabia managed to place itself within a succession of institutional arrangements and alliances, which, until recently, served as a kind of buffer against the impact of new realities and the imperatives of change on a kingdom ill-prepared to cope with them.

IF THE SAUDIS RUN OUT OF MONEY INTERNAL CONFLICT COULD OCCUR THAT WOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION

Jim Rogers, 1996 [The Sun (Baltimore), June 30; HEADLINE: The crumbling House of Saud; Unrest: Saudi Arabia's rulers sit atop the world's largest family business. But the business is shaky and the pie it has to split up is shrinking.\\jan]

So, here's the picture: Despite all that oil, the Saudis are running out of money. The Shiite minority shares little of the honey pot and is increasingly aggravated over the House of Saud's greedy royal scheme. As the noose tightens around their throats, the Shiites realize their Islamic birthright has been kept from them.

What follows for the rest of us if Saudi Arabia collapses from a civil rebellion? We in the United States would have a big problem. We use 25 percent of all the oil produced in the world. When Saudi Arabia is in flames, can we send troops to the region around Mecca, Islam's holiest site? Very unlikely. Suppose Iran or Iraq joins the fray? Fighting a war against Iran and Iraq will be a lot more difficult than was fighting Iraq over Kuwait on a limited front. A clever rebel will marry dissatisfaction over the corruption and high living of the extended royal family with the supposed desecration of holy sites, such as Mecca and Medina.