DISADVANTAGE/RUSSIA

IMPACT: RUSSIA WILL ATTEMPT TO RECONQUER FORMER PARTS OF THE SOVIET UNION

RUSSIAN ATTEMPTS TO REINTEGRATE FORMER SOVIET STATES WILL LEAD TO CONFLICT WITH THE WEST

Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Moscow's encroachments on the sovereignty of its onetime dependencies present a serious potential threat to East-West relations. The situation is not entirely clear-cut, since the West tacitly recognizes all lands that were once part of the Soviet Union as Russia's legitimate sphere of influence while insisting that Russia respect the sovereignty of the separated republics. If the past is any guide, in the event of an overt conflict between Russia and another of the former republics, the European allies are unlikely to go beyond expressions of regret. The United States, however, is almost certain to react more harshly, especially if the victim of Russian intimidation is Ukraine or one of the countries adjoining the Caspian Sea -- the former because of its geopolitical importance, the latter because of those oil-rich states' potential contribution to the world economy.

IMPACT: ATTEMPTS TO REINTEGRATE MEANS WAR WITH THE WEST

ALLOWING RUSSIA TO DOMINATE ITS EURASIAN "SPHERE OF INFLUENCE" WILL LEAD TO ATTEMPTS TO REINTEGRATE FORMER NATIONS, RESULTING IN WAR AND RUINATION

Stephen Blank, Professor of Research at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998 Pg. 9, HEADLINE: REFLECTIONS ON RUSSIA AND NATO ENLARGEMENT acs-VT99

Russia's demands for a privileged sphere of influence in its own "backyard" is unacceptable. This sphere cannot be maintained except through war and Russia's own ruination, because the CIS members will not accept what is clearly an unenforceable and illegitimate hegemony. Thus, Europe has no option but to unite against Russia's exorbitant claims. Hence, Russian moves to integrate the CIS in economics, politics, culture, and defense from above invariably weaken Eurasian security and reinforce anti-democratic tendencies and the structural militarization of Russian policies and institutions. An imperial restoration is the single greatest threat to peace in Europe and Russia because Russia cannot afford that temptation, though it still chases after it.

IMPACT: NATIONALISTS WILL ATTEMPT TO REINTEGRATE THE FORMER SOVIET STATES THROUGH CONQUEST

THE COMMUNISTS AND NATIONALISTS WILL ATTEMPT MILITARY REINTEGRATION OF THE FORMER SOVIET STATES

Gennady I. Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders; Russian Academy of Sciences and the Kettering Foundation, The Washington Quarterly, 1997 Autumn; Pg. 35, HEADLINE: The Politics of Conflict Prevention in Russia and the Near Abroad acs-VT99

Finally, a wide range of public groups, movements, and political parties, ranging from Communists to nationalists, strongly supports early and comprehensive reintegration. The Communist Party probably takes the most radical stand on this issue. The Communists and their allies became the largest single bloc in the new parliament elected in December 1995. They passed a resolution renouncing the December 1991 agreement to dissolve the Soviet Union. Communists have voiced the intent to approach the governments, parliaments, and peoples of all former Soviet republics with a proposal for a voluntary restoration of a single state. They justify their stand not only by results of public opinion polls on this issue held periodically in Russia but also by the results of similar polls conducted in other former Soviet republics, like one in Belarus in December 1995.

NATIONALISM’S RISE IN RUSSIA CAN MEAN ONLY WAR WITH NEIGHBORS OR CIVIL WAR

Holger Jensen, international editor of the Rocky Mountain News, The Fresno Bee, September 29, 1997, Pg. B7, HEADLINE: U.S still searching for Russian doctrine in post-Cold War era acs-VT99

As Sergei Rogov, head of the USA-Canada Institute, pointed out at a seminar conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute: "While Communism suppressed ethnicity, post-Communism raised it to the surface." Hence, "nationalism would be disastrous for Russia, leading either to conflict with neighbors or civil war." The solution, he said, is for Russia to develop a "supra-national identity above and beyond ethnicity."

THE RUSSIAN NATIONALIST LEFT WANTS TO AGGRESSIVELY MOVE AGAINST OTHER FORMER SOVIET STATES

Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

One aimed at reviving something resembling the former USSR as quickly as possible. The cost -- in treasure, world opinion, and even blood was no object. All means were acceptable, including the stirring up of nationalist and irredentist passions among the 25 million ethnic Russians living in the region. Moscow was urged to threaten recalcitrant states with the " politicization" of their Russian communities and the redrawing of borders to reclaim areas with large Russian populations, like northern Kazakhstan and eastern Ukraine. This imperial, revanchist, and ideological agenda was advocated largely, though not exclusively, by the nationalist Left.

RUSSIA IS PREPARING A MILITARY STRIKE INTO THE CAUCASUS

Looking ahead, it still remains unclear whether the South Caucasus will witness assassinations and coup attempts, a revival of ethnic conflicts or even outright Russian military action. However, for nearly six months, Russia has been building a case against Azerbaijan and Georgia with a steady stream of allegations ranging from accusations of indifference to the flow of arms, drugs, and militants across their borders to actively supporting the rebels and hosting a Chechen "government in exile." Russia has not only continued its rhetorical campaign despite Georgian and Azeri denials, but has also carried out "accidental" air strikes on border villages in both countries.

RUSSIA'S AGENDA IN CENTRAL ASIA IS TO CAUSE WARS AND CONFLICTS

Simon Sebag Montefiore The Times (London) November 19, 1999, HEADLINE: 'The more chaotic the Caucasus, the happier are Russia's new imperialists' // ln-acs 12/18/99

During the 1990s, Russia undermined the newly independent states of the region - Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia - by encouraging brutal wars, in Ossetia, Nagorno Karabakh and Abkhazia, that made the West hesitate before investing there. Even today Russia refuses to use its power to achieve settlements in these wars. Western pressure is required to bring peace.

CHECHNYA SHOWS RUSSIA IS NOW AIMING TO RESTABLISH ITS EMPIRE

Saleh Bashir, writing for pan-Arab al-Hayat, Mideast Mirror November 24, 1999 SECTION: TURKEY; Vol. 13, No. 227 HEADLINE: U.S. is shaping a new regional order to Turkey's benefit and Russia's detriment // ln-acs 12/18/99

In fact, the Chechen war underlines a very important strategic factor. Besides humanitarian considerations and concern over civilian casualties, Russian action in Chechnya is indicative of a new militancy in Moscow's policy. The issue transcends that of "fighting banditry," revenge for previous defeats at the hands of the Chechens, and even domestic Russian politics. Moscow, it seems, is determined to regain the superpower status it lost with the demise of the Soviet Union.