DISADVANTAGE/CHINA

ANSWERS: ANSWERS TO OTHER IMPACT SCENARIOS

CHINA IS ALREADY INCREASING ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL

Frank Umbach, Senior Research Fellow at the German Society for

Foreign Affairs (DGAP) in Berlin, Jane's Intelligence Review, October 1, 1999 wise to P'yongyang's nuclear blackmail // ln-10/99-acs

China itself is in the process of increasing its nuclear arsenal in quantity and quality. It is deploying an advanced, longer-range version of the DF-21 (provisionally called DF-21X) with an extended range of 3,000km and improved accuracy. It will launch six satellites next year, which should improve the accuracy of its ballistic missiles and allow detailed reconnaissance of Taiwan's defence capabilities. Furthermore, China is making considerable progress in developing manoeuvrable short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) with ranges of 300-600km and is also developing a new generation of land attack cruise missiles that will be able to accurately target key Taiwanese military installations using newly acquired dual-use technologies such as GPS and INS. China has already deployed 150-200 M-11 (range 300km) and M-9 (range 600km) SRBMs (in contrast to 30-50 SRBMs in 1995-96) in provinces adjacent to the 175km-wide Taiwan Strait and reportedly plans to increase this number to 650 by 2005.

DOING SOMETHING RUSSIA AND CHINA DO NOT LIKE DOESN'T HURT USA RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES

Jeffrey Gedmin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Financial Times (London) December 22, 1999, SECTION: COMMENT & ANALYSIS; Pg. 15 HEADLINE: COMMENT & ANALYSIS: Star Wars does not mean cold war: Europe should not fear US plans to protect itself against missile attacks from rogue states //acs-ln-12-22-99

It is true that Russia and China object to US plans. It is also true, though, that the US continues to pursue co-operative policies towards both. Washington wants China in the World Trade Organisation; it also maintains a dialogue with Moscow, despite the Russian war in Chechnya. The US also still foots 90 per cent of the bill for securing the safety of Russia's weapons and nuclear materials. There is little reason to believe that either country is ready to forsake its relationship with the US solely because of a missile defence system designed to confine a threat from rogue states.