DISADVANTAGE/CHINA

ANSWERS: CHINA WILL NOT INVADE TAIWAN

CHINA WOULD NOT RISK AN INVASION OF TAIWAN

Editorial The Detroit News August 12, 1999, Pg. A14 HEADLINE: An Unpredictable World // lnu-acs

China, meanwhile, has often talked tough about Taiwan, but analysts doubt the mainland government would attempt anything so rash as an actual invasion of an island that is armed to the teeth.

AT A SECRET MEETING CHINA’S LEADERS DECIDED NOT TO INVADE TAIWAN

Jane's Information Group Limited, Foreign Report, September 23, 1999 HEADLINE: China's answer to Taiwan - We reveal how China will handle the challenge from Taiwan's president // ln-10/99-acs

China's civilian Communist leaders are themselves under pressure: military commanders want to prepare for a possible military offensive. The issue was discussed this summer at a secluded beachside summer resort which is only open to China's top leaders. Foreign Report is now in a position to reveal what the Chinese have decided to do. China's military commanders have long favoured a 'total solution' in the event that Taiwan declared independence. This would consist of, first, a barrage of missiles fired to paralyse Taiwan's command system and destroy important military targets. After seizing air and naval supremacy, Chinese troops would force their way across the Strait of Taiwan and storm ashore. This is the classic warfare technique, for which the generals in Beijing have planned for decades. China's political leaders successfully resisted any discussion of this scheme.

CHINESE LEADERS HAVE REJECTED A PLAN TO OCCUPY ISLANDS OFF THE COST OF TAIWAN

Jane's Information Group Limited, Foreign Report, September 23, 1999 HEADLINE: China's answer to Taiwan - We reveal how China will handle the challenge from Taiwan's president // ln-10/99-acs

The generals offered a more limited option as well. This entailed seizing Taiwan's outlying islands, without seizing the main island itself. The advantage here is that the Taiwanese are unlikely to fight hard in order to defend what are in some cases uninhabited rocks, while the communist Chinese can show that they mean business. However, this option was also rejected by the political leadership, mainly because of its political implications. The crisis that would follow China's seizure of some Taiwanese islands could bring the United States in on the side of Taiwan, and could complicate China's international policy even further; the result could be that, although the communists would manage to humiliate Taiwan, this will come at the cost of ultimately strengthening America's informal security guarantees for Taiwan.

THE ONLY MILITARY ACTION CHINESE LEADERS WILL TAKE AGAINST TAIWAN IS A BLOCKADE

Jane's Information Group Limited, Foreign Report, September 23, 1999 HEADLINE: China's answer to Taiwan - We reveal how China will handle the challenge from Taiwan's president // ln-10/99-acs

A blockade looks best The idea now gaining favour is that of imposing a blockade on the island if Taiwan shows any further signs of independence. Submarines would be sent and ports and waterways would be mined to cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, causing economic crisis and social chaos. In comparison with the other two, the third option is now considered most desirable because it would be flexible, calibrated and controllable. Chinese political leaders could stop the process, continue it or expand it, depending on the reaction of the United States and East Asian nations, among others, without embarking on a full-scale war.

CHINA HAS DECIDED THAT THE BLOCKADE OPTION OF TAIWAN LOOKS BEST, NOT AN INVASION

Jane's Information Group Limited, Foreign Report, September 23, 1999 HEADLINE: China's answer to Taiwan - We reveal how China will handle the challenge from Taiwan's president // ln-10/99-acs

The blockade option clearly plays to the inherent strengths of communist China: the size of the People's Liberation Army, its proximity and sheer tenacity. And, for the politicians in Beijing, the strategy of the blockade has the added advantage of being a measure of war, without being war as such. This is the strategy that mainland China will adopt if the confrontation with Taiwan gets tougher.

CHINA SEES MILITARY ADVENTURISM AS UNWISE

Henry Kissinger, former US Sec. Of State & Nobel Peace Prize winner, The Straits Times (Singapore), September 25, 1999; Pg. 65 HEADLINE: Cold War attitude to China unhelpful // ln-10/99-acs

From Beijing, the world does not look like one that encourages Chinese military adventure.

Indeed, I would say the strategic argument in China for good relations with the US is to follow the traditional Chinese principle of using the distant barbarian against the close barbarian.

I would think we rank No 4 among Chinese potential threats after Russia, Japan and even India.