DISADVANTAGE/CHINA
ANSWERS: CHINA IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE A SERIOUS THREAT
CHINA POLICY MUST BE BASED ON THE REALIZATION OF HOW SMALL A POWER IT REALLY IS
GERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs
Odd as it may seem, the country that is home to a fifth of humankind is overrated as a market, a power, and a source of ideas. At best, China is a second-rank middle power that has mastered the art of diplomatic theater: it has us willingly suspending our disbelief in its strength. In fact, China is better understood as a theoretical power -- a country that has promised to deliver for much of the last 150 years but has consistently disappointed. After 50 years of Mao's revolution and 20 years of reform, it is time to leave the theater and see China for what it is. Only when we finally understand how little China matters will we be able to craft a sensible policy toward it.
CHINA WILL NOT BE A STRATEGIC THREAT TO THE USA FOR 20 YEARS
Henry Kissinger, former US Sec. Of State & Nobel Peace Prize winner, The Straits Times (Singapore), September 25, 1999; Pg. 65 HEADLINE: Cold War attitude to China unhelpful // ln-10/99-acs
China is not going to be a strategic threat against the US for 20 years, at least, in the sense that it can mount a strategic force that could plan a first strike against the US, threatening our retaliatory capability.
Its forces will be minimal compared to what the Soviet Union had and almost certainly we will have developed a missile defence by then which will reduce the growth in that capacity even more.
CHINA IS A SECOND RATE MILITARY POWER WHICH POSES TO REAL REGIONAL MILITARY THREAT TO ANYONE OF IMPORTANCE
GERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs
CHINA IS a second-rate military power -- not first-rate, because it is far from capable of taking on America, but not as third-rate as most of its Asian neighbors. China accounts for only 4.5 percent of global defense spending (the United States makes up 33.9 percent) and 25.8 percent of defense spending in East Asia and Australasia. China poses a formidable threat to the likes of the Philippines and can take islands such as Mischief Reef in the South China Sea at will. But sell the Philippines a couple of cruise missiles and the much-discussed Chinese threat will be easily erased. China is in no military shape to take the disputed Senkaku Islands from Japan, which is decently armed.
CHINA HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE IN THE KOREAS, AND CHINA IS NOT HELPFUL IN DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA
GERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs
Only on the Korean Peninsula do China's capacities seriously affect U.S. policy. One often hears that China matters because it is so helpful in dealing with North Korea. This is flatly wrong. Only once this decade diCHINA HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE IN THE KOREAS, AND CHINA IS NOT HELPFUL IN DEALING WITH NORTH KOREAGERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs Only on the Korean Peninsula do China's capacities seriously affect U.S. policy. One often hears that China matters because it is so helpful in dealing with North Korea. This is flatly wrong. Only once this decade diddle-power adversary matters: it is a problem to be circumvented or moved. But China does not maddle-power adversary matters: it is a problem to be circumvented or moved. But China does not ma Russia than either cares to admit.
CHINA’S GLOBAL POLITICAL INFLUENCE IS PUNY
GERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs
Measuring global political power is difficult, but China's influence and authority are clearly puny -- not merely compared to the dominant West, but also compared to Japan before the economic crisis. Among the reasons for China's weakness is its continuing ambiguity about how to manage the consequences of modernity and interdependence. China's great past and the resultant hubris make up much of the problem. A China that believes the world naturally owes it recognition as a great power -- even when it so patently is not -- is not really ready to achieve greatness.
CHINA MATTERS ABOUT AS MUCH AS BRAZIL IN WORLD POLITICS
GERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs
THE MIDDLE KINGDOM, then, is merely a middle power. It is not that China does not matter at all, but that it matters far less than it and most of the West think. China matters about as much as Brazil for the global economy. It is a medium-rank military power, and it exerts no political pull at all. China matters most for the West because it can make mischief, either by threatening its neighbors or assisting anti-Western forces further afield. Although these are problems, they will be more manageable if the West retains some sense of proportion about China's importance. If you believe that China is a major player in the global economy and a near-peer competitor of America's, you might be reluctant to constrain its undesired activities. You might also indulge in the "pander complex" -- the tendency to bend over backward to accommodate every Chinese definition of what insults the Chinese people's feelings. But if you believe that China is not much different from any middle power, you will be more willing to treat it normally.
WE MUST REALIZE HOW UNIMPORTANT CHINA IS BEFORE WE CAN HAVE THE CORRECT POLICIES TOWARDS CHINA
GERALD SEGAL, Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Foreign Affairs September, 1999 / October, 1999; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Does China Matter? // ln-10/99-acs
Nevertheless, until China is cut down to size in Western imaginations and treated more like a Brazil or an India, the West stands little chance of sustaining a coherent and long-term policy toward it. Until we stop suspending our disbelief and recognize the theatrical power of China, we will continue to constrain ourselves from pursuing our own interests and fail to constrain China's excesses. And perhaps most important, until we treat China as a normal middle power, we will make it harder for the Chinese people to understand their own failings and limitations and get on with the serious reforms that need to come.
CHINA IS NOT ABLE TO BE OUR ENEMY, AND WE MUST NOT LET ANYONE USE CHINA TO JUSTIFY A NEEDLESS MILITARY BUILD UP
Reggie Rivers, The Denver Post, April 12, 2001 SECTION: DENVER & THE WEST; Pg. B-07 HEADLINE: Is China just a convenient enemy? //VT2002acsln
In every way that matters, we're light years ahead of China. But that won't stop our leaders from trying to sell China to us as an enemy in order to ensure our continued military buildup. And yet we should be careful to decide not based on our fears, but based on whether we really need more military spending.