DISADVANTAGE/CHINA

ANSWERS: CHINA AND THE USA WILL HAVE GOOD RELATIONS

DESPITE BUMPS IN THE ROAD,CHINA KNOWS THAT IT NEEDS GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE USA IN ORDER TO REACH ITS GOALS

James Kynge: October 1, 1999, Financial Times (London) ; Pg. 01

HEADLINE: 'Strategic partnership' remains elusive // ln-10/99-acs

Foreign diplomats in Beijing said that for all the mistrust that characterises bilateral ties, China realises at a fundamental level that a perennially adversarial relationship with the world's only superpower would be inimical to its paramount goal of raising its international stature.

CHINA’S LEADER JIANG ZEMIN HAS A PERSONAL STAKE IN GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE USA

James Kynge: October 1, 1999, Financial Times (London) ; Pg. 01

HEADLINE: 'Strategic partnership' remains elusive // ln-10/99-acs

Mr Jiang also has a significant personal stake in cordial ties with Washington. The personal efforts he expended - swimming in the sea of Hawaii, singing Chinese opera in California and toasting the "strategic partnership" in Washington in 1997 - were unmistakable signals to the Chinese people that Mr Jiang wanted to define his presidency by better US ties.

ENGAGEMENT WITH CHINA IS A FACT AND CANNOT MOVE UP OR DOWN WITH THE DAILY NEWS

DAVID SHAMBAUGH, Director of the China Policy Program and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University January, 2001 / February, 2001 Foreign Affairs HEADLINE: Facing Reality in China Policy SECTION: CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT; Pg. 50 //VT2002acsln

First, engagement with China is a fact of life, not a policy preference that can be turned up, down, on, or off at the whim of an administration. The United States and China are linked by an extensive web of cultural, societal, scientific, and commercial ties that bind the two nations together through countless daily human interactions. Unlike during the Cold War with the former Soviet Union, during which the two adversaries had minimal exchanges in these areas, today Americans and Chinese share a dense network of professional and personal bonds. These bonds are neither generally reported in the media nor appreciated by analysts, but they form a real web between the two countries.

TRADE AND COMMERCE WILL KEEP THE USA & CHINA ON GOOD TERMS

Extensive trade and commercial ties also bind the two nations. They are engaged in nearly $ 100 billion in annual bilateral trade, the volume of which has grown by more than $ 10 billion per year recently -- a rate that will only accelerate now that Congress has granted PNTR to China. Of course, the more than $ 60 billion trade surplus in China's favor is unacceptably high and needs to be brought down. But overall, trade and investment further anchor the often volatile relationship, counterbalancing frictions in other areas.

USA AND CHINA ARE NOT IN A COLD WAR SITUATION

Therefore, U.S.-China relations are not necessarily adversarial, as some commentators suggest. Cold War -- era relations between the United States and the former Soviet Union, by contrast, allowed for only minimal exchanges of the type that connect Chinese and American private citizens today.

USA-CHINA RELATIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE AND CANNOT BE "TURNED UP OR DOWN"

DAVID SHAMBAUGH; professor and director of the China Policy program at George Washington University, April 20, 2001 Asiaweek SECTION: COVER STORY; About Face; Pg. 27 HEADLINE: THE INESCAPABLE AMBIGUITY //VT2002acsln

Yet these are false dichotomies. Inescapably, the Sino-American relationship is one of simultaneous cooperation and competition. While the fallout from the current dilemma will no doubt deepen already existing mutual strategic suspicions, a "floor" to the relationship remains a fact of life, and numerous areas of interaction and cooperation will move ahead.

For the U.S., engagement with China cannot be turned up, down, on or off at the whim of an administration. The two nations experience an array of cultural, societal, educational, scientific, commercial, and other ties that bind them together in countless human interactions. Unlike the Cold War with the Soviet Union, during which the two adversaries had minimal exchanges, Americans and Chinese share a dense network of professional and personal interconnections.

TOO MANY IMPORTANT AREAS OF USA-CHINA SECURITY COOPERATION EXIST FOR RELATIONS TO BE PUT AT RISK

In the security realm, numerous concrete areas of cooperation exist. Let us count the ways. Both governments:

* share a common desire to stem the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery;

* seek to control the spread of fissile nuclear material and other militarily and strategically sensitive items;

* adhere to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (despite non-ratification by the U.S. Senate) and work together in the field of non-proliferation;

* share a common desire to bring both India and Pakistan into the NPT and CTBT, and to freeze the nuclear programs of both nations before they move to weaponization and deployment;

* share common interests in a peaceful, WMD-free, economically viable, socially stable, and ultimately reunified Korean peninsula;

* share a mutual desire for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan problem, and agree on the important "One China Principle".

These are all important strategic commonalities. In addition, the two governments cooperate on what may be described as "low security" issues: combating narcotics trafficking; fighting organized crime; controlling alien smuggling and piracy; controlling weapons smuggling; protecting the environment; working together in peacekeeping operations and providing disaster relief. While world peace does not hang on these matters, the global security agenda is increasingly concerned with them, and they add heft to Sino-American interconnectivity.

CURRENT STATUS OF USA-CHINA RELATIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE FOR YEARS

Such a state of affairs is likely to endure for years. This is both natural and normal -- given the differing global perspectives, levels of development, cultural background, political systems and national security interests of each country. One should not naively expect the two governments and people to see the world and their interests in the same way or to enjoy a never-dissonant harmony of relations. Conversely, the differences between the two should not be exaggerated, nor are the two great continental powers preordained to suffer a hostile and adversarial relationship. The question is: Can they live with the necessary ambiguity?