DISADVANTAGE/CHINA

IMPACT: CHINA WILL ATTACK TAIWAN

ANTI-USA SENTIMENT IN CHINA INCREASES TAIWAN WAR RISKS AND CONTROL HARDLINERS HAVE ON THE GOVERNMENT

James Kynge: October 1, 1999, Financial Times (London) ; Pg. 01

HEADLINE: 'Strategic partnership' remains elusive // ln-10/99-acs

Poor US ties may also damage hopes for the peaceful reunification of Taiwan, a project of elemental importance to Mr Jiang.

From another perspective, anti-US sentiment tends to strengthen conservative and nationalistic forces within China's policy nexus.

INVASION OF TAIWAN -- THEY ARE TIRED OF WAITING

John Gittings The Guardian (London) June 9, 1999 SECTION: Guardian Leader Pages; Pg. 19 HEADLINE: Arms across the Taiwan Straits // lnu-acs

The reason to be more worried now, says Kao, is precisely because China will not wait another 50 years. With Hong Kong and Macau rejoining China, no self- respecting Beijing leadership can let the Taiwan situation drag on.

CHINA IS PLANNING A DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS ATTACK ON TAIWAN USING ELECTRO-MAGNETIC PULSE

Mark Daly International Defense Review April 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Democracy is Taiwan's best shield against China's threat // lnu-acs

As long ago as March 1986, China launched the 863 Project at the behest of Wang Ganchang, who initiated nuclear warhead and ballistic missile research in the mid-1950s. The 863 Project covered research on laser, microwave, and electromagnetic pulse weapons. Guo Hezhong, formerly of the Electronics Research Institute at China Science Academy, originated research into damaging the enemy's C[3]1 with microwave beams. His expertise lies in millimeter wave and directed energy weapons. This theory may seem far-fetched, but Lin argues that China has managed several leaps of capability in the past - joining the nuclear club in 1964, launching its first space satellite in 1970, and its first full-range inter-continental ballistic missile in 1980. The official PLA budget has enjoyed double-digit growth since 1989: China's scientists have an impressive track record and also greater access to western technology.

ANY PROVOCATION OF CHINA MUST BE AVOIDED TO STABILIZE THE TAIWAN SITUATION

The Straits Times (Singapore) August 7, 1999: Commentary Analysis; Pg. 66 HEADLINE: Go slow on Taiwan // lnu-acs

US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for International Security Affairs, Dr Kurt Campbell, is absolutely right when he says: "Taiwan's security rests not only on its defence posture but also on a continued, constructive cross-strait dialogue." The US, he points out, is already providing Taiwan with much of its defence needs. Last week, it went ahead with sales to Taiwan of early-warning radar aircraft and spare parts for F-16 fighter jets. Beyond that, the Clinton administration pursues a policy of "comprehensive engagement" to build a "constructive" relationship with Beijing. As Mr Campbell says, the US-China relationship is not a zero-sum game and any improvement in their bilateral relations will not be at Taiwan's expense. This is a sound policy which should not be trifled with. Anything which smacks of provocation from the US should be avoided, more so at a time when China-Taiwan relations are at a new low after President Lee Teng-hui's controversial move to dump the one-China policy in favour of state-to-state relations with Beijing. The congressional initiative is worrisome because it will encourage Taiwan's nationalists to step up their pro-independence campaign, which China suspects the Americans are secretly supporting.