DISADVANTAGE/CHINA

LINK: EXPANSION OF NMD ANGERS CHINA TO NO END

CHINA TOTALLY REJECTS MISSILE DEFENSE USE IN ASIA

Evan S Medeiros and Jing-dong Yuan January 1, 2001 Jane's Intelligence Review HEADLINE: A US military presence in Asia: offshore balancer or local sheriff? //VT2002acsln

Since early 1999 China's objections to the R&D and deployment of regional TMD systems have intensified. Beijing has five areas of concerns:

• the Chinese see TMD as yet another step by the USA to strengthen the US-Japanese military alliance and to contain China;
• China contends that TMD R&D will only encourage and facilitate Japanese re-militarisation. The Chinese argue that TMD technology could help Japan to build long-range missiles. An even greater concern is that once Japan develops the 'shield' then it will be encouraged to develop offensive military technologies or the 'sword';
• China contends that US TMD sales to Taiwan are a violation of the 1982 Sino-US communique on arms sales;
• Beijing is concerned that TMD will give a false sense of security to the people of Taiwan and encourage independence sentiments on the island; and
• TMD sales to Taiwan will constitute a de facto revival of the 1954 US-Taiwan military alliance. Many Chinese argue that TMD will require a high degree of technical and policy co-ordination between Washington and Taipei that will lead to closer military co- operation.

MISSILE DEFENSE SALES TO TAIWAN CROSSES A "RED LINE" WHICH THE CHINESE CANNOT ACCEPT

Evan S Medeiros and Jing-dong Yuan January 1, 2001 Jane's Intelligence Review HEADLINE: A US military presence in Asia: offshore balancer or local sheriff? //VT2002acsln

US TMD sales to Taiwan may represent a diplomatic 'red-line' for Beijing. Such a deal with Taiwan would lead China to fundamentally re-evaluate the basis of its political relations with the USA. Chinese officials have indicated that they will begin to reconsider China's various arms control and non-proliferation commitments if such a deal proceeded. In response to TMD deployments in Japan, especially an upper-tier system, China is likely to build more missiles to ensure that its ability to target Japan remains credible and effective.

ASIAN TMD WILL PROMPT A CHINESE NUCLEARB BUILD-UP, DESTABILIZING THE REGION

The Straits Times (Singapore), November 7, 1999 SECTION: (Review Cover Story); Pg. 36 HEADLINE: Next stage in US-Japan military relations // ln-acs-11-11-99

In the short run, it is clear what China will do in response: TMD may never become an impenetrable shield, but it will have to assume that it may.

Accordingly, it will calculate that with the shield in place, the US can theoretically launch a first strike against China, destroy the bulk of its missiles, and be reasonably confident that the shield will take care of whatever is left in China's arsenal.

To maintain its deterrent capacity, China will have to deploy many more missiles, acquire multiple-warhead missiles, and invest heavily in new technologies to evade TMD.

A system meant to provide added security may thus, by the grim logic of arms, instigate a series of counter-measures which may make Asia less, not more, stable.

That is a reasonable guess, since no defensive system in history has ever failed to engender a commensurate offensive response.

CHINA BELIEVES THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE OF TAIWAN IS A DIRECT ATTACK ON THEM

Mark Daly International Defense Review April 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Democracy is Taiwan's best shield against China's threat // lnu-acs

China's Foreign Minister, Tang Jiaxaun, said last month that the development of TMD "would exert a negative impact on the global and regional strategic balance and stability into the next century. If some people intend to include Taiwan under Theater Missile Defense, that would amount to an encroachment on China's sovereignty and territorial integrity", he said.

THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE IN ASIA IS PERCEIVED AS AN ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN CHINA

James Kynge: October 1, 1999, Financial Times (London) ; Pg. 01

HEADLINE: 'Strategic partnership' remains elusive // ln-10/99-acs

But it has been Washington's plans to deploy a missile defence shield in South Korea, Japan and possibly Taiwan that has provided most ammunition for those in China, and particularly within the politically resurgent PLA, who perceive a plot of containment.

Although the theatre missile defence system has not yet been developed, Chinese officials have complained that its deployment in Asia would alter the balance of power in the region and fuel an arms race.

Senior officials have also indicated that the sale of the system to Taiwan would be regarded as the inception of a de facto US-Taiwan military alliance - an event that would raise the possibility of a Chinese military response.

THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE IN ASIA WILL INCREASE CHINA’S NUCLEAR BUILD UP

Frank Umbach, Senior Research Fellow at the German Society for

Foreign Affairs (DGAP) in Berlin, Jane's Intelligence Review, October 1, 1999 wise to P'yongyang's nuclear blackmail // ln-10/99-acs

Ironically, TMD systems deployed in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan might accelerate the modernisation of China's nuclear arsenal, especially rapid development of a multiple independent re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capability to overwhelm a TMD option by sheer numbers or by using manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles that could avoid interception.

THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE IN ASIA CAUSES CHINA TO FEAR A USA FIRST STRIKE

Frank Umbach, Senior Research Fellow at the German Society for

Foreign Affairs (DGAP) in Berlin, Jane's Intelligence Review, October 1, 1999 wise to P'yongyang's nuclear blackmail // ln-10/99-acs

According to the PRC, the USA is exaggerating the military threat of missile attacks from North Korea and using this as a pretext to strengthen its military alliance and enhance its military presence in East Asia to contain China. Moreover, an effective TMD option for the USA and its main allies in East Asia to counter China's nuclear missiles would lead Beijing to question its nuclear deterrence policy as it would dramatically increase US first-strike capabilities.

CHINA VIEWS MISILE DEFENSE COOPERATION WITH JAPAN AND TAIWAN AS A DIRECT ATTACK ON THEM

"A top Chinese diplomat warned the Clinton administration yesterday against working with Japan or Taiwan on anti-missile defense systems, suggesting that Beijing might build more powerful missiles in response. "This would have a negative impact on regional and global stability," said Sha Zukang, director general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's arms control and disarmament division."

"Anti-Missile Defense Draws Chinese Warning" - Washington Times January 13, 1999

TAIWAN WANTS A THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD

Mure Dickie, Financial Times (London) August 20, 1999, SECTION: ASIA-PACIFIC; Pg. 06 HEADLINE: Taiwan closer to developing missile shield // lnu-acs

   Taiwan yesterday moved closer to the creation of an island-wide defence system designed to protect it against missiles fired by mainland China, a plan likely to heighten tensions between Taipei and Beijing.

TAIWAN AND THE UK WILL WANT TO SIGNJ ON TO NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE IF THE USA DOES

Rupert Cornwell, The Independent (London) August 21, 1999, SECTION: FEATURES; Pg. 4 HEADLINE: COMMENT: THE NUCLEAR WORLD: TIME TO TAKE STOCK; A TERRORIST'S BOMB IN A SUITCASE IS PROBABLY THE GREATEST NUCLEAR THREAT TO AMERICA // lnu-acs

Facing fresh intimidation from the mainland, Taiwan wants American help in setting up a system protecting most of its territory from shorter range Chinese missiles. Europe too is getting twitchy. "Sooner or later", predicts Bruce George, Chairman of the Commons Select Committee on Defence, the UK will sign up to some such system. Nor would the precaution be unwise, given the perception of Britain in parts as junior partner of the great Satan.