DISADVANTAGE/PROLIFERATION

TURKEY SCENARIO: IMPACTS OF TURKEY PROLIFERATION

TURKISH NUCLAR PROLIFERATION SETS OFF CONFLICTS WITH GREECE AND RUSSIA

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Moreover, there is also a European dimension with two aspects to Turkish affairs. Should Ankara develop nuclear weapons, this would certainly give rise to deep concern in Athens, which would consider following suit. A Turkish nuclear capability would also result in strengthening already-good Greek ties with Iran and the Arab world, thereby angering Ankara and indirectly getting the EU more deeply involved in Middle Eastern affairs. The second aspect is Moscow's consent to arm the Greek Cypriots with missiles, which is regarded as an unfriendly act by Ankara. This, combined with friendly relations between Greece and Russia, Moscow's arms deals with Middle Eastern countries and competing interests between Ankara and Moscow in the Caucasus and Central Asia, will likely influence a Turkish decision to acquire a nuclear capability, albeit to a lesser degree than developments in Iran.

A NUCLEAR TURKEY, ARMED BY PAKISTAN, WILL THREATEN IRAQ AND SYRIA

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Iraq and Syria are particularly wary of a possible future emergence of Turkey as a nuclear power, as both countries oppose Ankara's diversion of water from the Euphrates. This prospect will naturally also alarm Tehran, which might face two nuclear adversaries in the future instead of only one. Whichever way you see it, it appears as if these fears of adversaries gaining possible advantages will trigger off a very dangerous arms-race, with most countries in the region trying to develop WMD. The Turkish daily newspaper Radical reported on 1 June an offer to co-operate on the development of nuclear weapons allegedly made by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Turkish President Suleyman Demirel at the Economic Co-operation Organisation (ECO) summit at Almaty in Kazakhstan after India's detonation of its first three nuclear bombs. According to the newspaper, an unnamed Turkish cabinet member has said that Turkey must acquire technologies for building nuclear weapons in the next 10 years because of the danger Ankara faces from nuclear and chemical arsenals in neighbouring countries.

TURKEY SIDES WITH ISRAEL AGAINST ARAB STATES

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

To the Arabs there is no doubt about where Turkey's sympathies lie - with Israel. It has also been clearly stated by Ankara that its relations with Tel Aviv will not be allowed to be affected by considerations for Arab reactions. These developments will result in moderate Arab states being forced to disassociate themselves from Israel and Turkey and their joining an emerging Arab-Iranian alliance to confront the Israeli-Turkish 'aggression'. This will also force Amman, which has been courted by both Tel Aviv and Ankara in order to include Jordan in the Israeli-Turkish military co-operation, to choose sides. There are thus no options for King Abdullah, because neither the parliament nor the man on the street will accept co-operation with the 'enemy' against the rest of the Islamic world.