DISADVANTAGE/PROLIFERATION

TURKEY SCENARIO: LINKS TO TURKEY PROLIFERATION

IF IRAN GETS NUCLEAR WEAPONS, TURKEY WILL FOLLOW -- AND HAS THE CAPABILITY

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Turkey, like Israel, has expressed concern about the Indo-Pakistani nuclear race, as this will inevitably lead to an Iranian atomic bomb, which would be highly alarming to Ankara and force it to join the race. Turkey will be able to do this as soon as construction of several nuclear power plants on the Turkish coast is completed. The Turkish government has announced plans to build 10 nuclear reactors by 2020, the first of which is to be built at Akkuyu Bay. On 4 June, al-Sharq al-Awsat reported that, seen with Arab eyes, the Turkish decision to build a nuclear reactor at Akkuyu Bay constitutes a new threat, aside from the military co-operation with Israel, to its Arab neighbours. This is particularly so as the reactor reportedly will come under the jurisdiction of the Turkish National Security Council.

TURKEY JUSTIFIES NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION BASED ON THE THREAT OF IRAN

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Turkey's decision to build a nuclear reactor is being justified by the nuclear tests last May on the Indian subcontinent and the Iranian nuclear programme, which is claimed by Tehran to be aimed at acquiring nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Negotiations have commenced with German, US and Canadian companies for construction of the reactor, which may begin next year. Some Arab analysts do not seem to place too much trust in the guarantees that the reactor will be used for peaceful purposes only, and this distrust has been fanned by statements made by prominent retired Turkish military figures who have stressed the necessity of establishing Turkish military supremacy in the region and of acquiring non-conventional weapons, among others nuclear weapons.