DISADVANTAGE/PROLIFERATION

IRAN SCENARIO: IMPACTS OF IRAN PROLIFERATION

A NUCLEAR IRAN WILL LEAD TO AN IRAN VS. ISRAEL TURKEY CONFLICT

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Should Tehran acquire a nuclear capability (which seems more or less inevitable), this will certainly increase the conservative camp's wish to control Iran's international relations, and the political adversaries of President Khatami will likely push for a more active role in protecting Muslim brethren against 'Zionist' and Western 'threats', making use of nuclear weapons a means of bringing pressure to bear on Israel and the USA. The failed Iranian policy in Afghanistan will likely polarise Tehran's relations with Islamabad and possibly lead to a rapprochement with India, which will welcome such a development as closer ties with Iran could be exploited to balance the close Sino-Pakistani relations. The Israeli-Turkish military co-operation will continue to be perceived as a serious threat in neighbouring Arab capitals and in Tehran. The high profile Ankara maintains in Middle Eastern affairs, the Syrian crisis being a palpable example of this, will most likely result in increased and continued tension in the region, in particular if a nuclear dimension is added to an already hot war of words.

MODERATES IN IRAN FEAR THAT A NUCLEARIZED IRAN WILL BECOME A MUCH MORE RADICALIZED STATE

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //Inu-acs

However, what the moderate forces in Iran fear is that acquisition of nuclear weapons and militarisation of the country will enable the conservative camp to wield vastly increased power and effectively obstruct President Khatami's reformist policies, as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and not President Khatami is the supreme commander of the Iranian armed forces.

HUGE PROLIFERATION RISKS EXIST IN HOTPOTS LIKE KOREA AND IRAN

JAMES RISEN February 8, 2001, The New York Times SECTION: Section A; Page 11; HEADLINE: C.I.A. Chief Sees Russia Trying to Revive Its Challenge to U.S. //VT2002acsln

Mr. Tenet also warned that the threat from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction remained high in flashpoints like the Korean peninsula and Iran. Iran continues to receive Russian missile technology and "has one of the largest and most capable ballistic missile programs in the Middle East," Mr. Tenet said.

And despite recent political gains by reformist forces, he added, Tehran "has not reduced its willingness to use terrorism to pursue strategic foreign policy agendas."

IRAN OR IRAQ PROLIFERATION WILL SET OFF A CHAIN OF PROLIFERATION INCLUDING ALGERIA

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

In light of the Indian and Pakistani tests, Iraq's disruption of UN weapons inspections, Iran's and Iraq's classified nuclear weapons programmes and Algeria's imminent uranium enrichment capability do not augur well and may trigger off a chain reaction in neighbouring countries. For Europe, the worst-case scenario would place the south of the continent within the reach of missiles capable of delivering nuclear payloads.

IRAN IS 3-6 YEARS AWAY, AND IF THEY PROLIFERATE TURKEY, IRAQ, AND SYRIA WILL FOLLOW

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

By Israeli estimates, Tehran will acquire a nuclear capability in three to six years if Tel Aviv does not do something about it. Should an Iranian atomic bomb become a reality, Turkey and Iraq could not stand by idly and Syria would probably also try to acquire the bomb. In Iraq alone there are thousands of experts waiting to put their skills into completing the country's nuclear programme, with the UN inspections disrupted and little risk of US reprisals because of strong Arab and UN Security Council opposition.

PAKISTANI AND INDIAN PROLIFERATION MEANS IRAN AND IRAQ WILL ALSO PROLIFERATE

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Pakistan's and India's nuclear tests last May have not only added a nuclear dimension to Indo-Pakistani relations, but have also resulted in an enhanced self-esteem in the Islamic world, a feeling of unjust treatment of an Islamic country by the USA (the US sanctions imposed on Pakistan as a result of the tests) and an encouragement to other Islamic countries to acquire a nuclear capability. The latter category includes Iran and Iraq, which may become reluctant (in the case of Iraq this is already a fact) to allow international inspection of nuclear or suspected nuclear installations.

IF IRAN GETS NUCLEAR WEAPONS, TURKEY WILL FOLLOW -- AND HAS THE CAPABILITY

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //Inu-acs

Turkey, like Israel, has expressed concern about the Indo-Pakistani nuclear race, as this will inevitably lead to an Iranian atomic bomb, which would be highly alarming to Ankara and force it to join the race. Turkey will be able to do this as soon as construction of several nuclear power plants on the Turkish coast is completed. The Turkish government has announced plans to build 10 nuclear reactors by 2020, the first of which is to be built at Akkuyu Bay. On 4 June, al-Sharq alAwsat reported that, seen with Arab eyes, the Turkish decision to build a nuclear reactor at Akkuyu Bay constitutes a new threat, aside from the military co-operation with Israel, to its Arab neighbours. This is particularly so as the reactor reportedly will come under the jurisdiction of the Turkish National Security Council.