DISADVANTAGE/PROLIFERATION

JAPAN SCENARIO: LINKS TO JAPAN PROLIFERATION

US NUCLEAR CUTS PUSH JAPAN TOWARDS NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Sam Jameson, The Denver Post , August 15, Pg. F-01 HEADLINE: WAR AND PEACE Preventing any further proliferation // Inu-acs

Atlantic Council of Washington and the Research Institute for Peace and Security of Tokyo, titled "Restudying the Role of Nuclear Weapons." The two think tanks, which presented the report at a Tokyo symposium, also expressed concern about an arms race to build nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in Asia, including Japan. But their proposals called for bringing Japan into front-line nuclear discussions, rather treating it as the main threat. They also acknowledged that despite its "three nonnuclear principles" of not using, possessing or allowing the introduction of nuclear weapons, Japan is worried that the U.S. might go too far in slashing its nuclear arsenal. "Closer consultations are needed between the United States and Japan on the impact of U.S. nuclear reductions on the credibility of the "nuclear umbrella," a joint declaration of the two institutes said.

START 2 AND START 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS CUTBACKS THREATEN THE USA-JAPAN SECURITY ALLIANCE, WHICH IS THE KEY TO ASIAN STABILITY

Frank Umbach, Senior Research Fellow at the German Society for

Foreign Affairs (DGAP) in Berlin, Jane's Intelligence Review, October 1, 1999 wise to P'yongyang's nuclear blackmail // ln-10/99-acs

Ultimately, however, the linchpin for stability in the Asia-Pacific region and Korean peninsula, as well as for Japan's security and the maintenance of its non-nuclear weapon status, remains the US-Japanese security alliance and the US extended nuclear deterrence in Northeast Asia. In this light, a significant cut in the US nuclear arsenal beyond the discussed START-II and future START-III levels of 1,500-2,000 warheads seems unrealistic and rather destabilising for the region as long as China's increasing nuclear arsenal is not included.

AS LONG AS THE JAPAN-USA ALLIANCE STAYS STRONG, OTHER ASIAN STATES WILL NOT GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Frank Umbach, Senior Research Fellow at the German Society for

Foreign Affairs (DGAP) in Berlin, Jane's Intelligence Review, October 1, 1999 wise to P'yongyang's nuclear blackmail // ln-10/99-acs

Against this background, Japan and South Korea would only be able to rely upon the USA's extended nuclear deterrence umbrella, which has lost some of its former credibility in the multi-polar post-Cold War security environment. Nonetheless, as long as the US-Japanese security alliance is maintained - with its dual functions of constraining as well as protecting Japan - the 'nuclear problem' is solved and a 'nuclearisation' of Japan's defence policies remains only a theoretical option on the future horizon. However, should the security alliance collapse, Japan would be surrounded by nuclear and potentially hostile neighbours (including perhaps a nuclear Korea).