DISADVANTAGE/PROLIFERATION

JAPAN SCENARIO: �JAPAN CAN GO NUCLEAR EASILY & QUICKLY�JAPAN CAN GO NUCLEAR IN A MATTER OF MONTHS

Vladimir SoIntsev TASS, July 25, 1999, HEADLINE: Experts don't doubt Israeli nuclear potential expert // Inu-acs

"There is a group of countries which can easily create nuclear armaments and have everything necessary for that," the expert remarks. It is a matter of developed countries, which do not plan to make the nuclear arms. "As need be, the creation of nuclear armaments will be a matter of months, not years, for Japan," Blagovolin said.

JAPAN'S BUILD UP OF PLUTONIUM FORESHADOWS NUCLEAR PROLIFERAT10N

Agence France Presse , September 01, 1999 HEADLINE: US nuclear nonproliferation policy in North-East Asia "a failure" // Inu-acs

"Latest estimates suggest Japan now owns a staggering 30 tons (of plutonium). That's sufficient to construct well over 4,000 nuclear weapons," Greenpeace's Shaun Burnie said. Greenpeace said it had obtained confidential US documents which revealed the Clinton administration had been warned by its embassy in Tokyo that Japan's plutonium programme was a direct threat to US efforts to curb nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula. The state and defense department documents, compiled from diplomatic cables, described Japan's accumulation of weapons-grade plutonium as "massive" and economically "unjustified", Greenpeace said.

JAPAN HAS THE PLUTONIUM AND THE MISSILE DELIVERY SYSTEMS IT NEEDS TO BE A FULL NUCLEAR POWER

THE HINDU , August 11, 1999 HEADLINE: Japan's n-programme in focus // Inu-acs

Numerous findings have been highlighted in the report. Prominent among these are: Japan has enough super grade plutonium today for a small arsenal of sophisticated nuclear warheads with the U.S. actively helping by supplying plutonium reprocessing technology to Japan in violation of domestic and international laws; a British Defence Ministry study has determined that Japan may have built all the components for a nuclear weapon excepting the plutonium core. Japan, the report quoting its "sources" maintains, bought a Russian SS-20 Missile Bus on the black market which experts have determined could be used as a model for their own MIRVed missiles; the Japanese Space Programme has produced rockets with thrusts equivalent to American inter-continental ballistic missiles; and that the North Korean nuclear programme has given the Japanese a compelling reason to maintain its nuclear option.

JAPAN HAS THE UNIQUE CAPACITY TO BECOME A NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATE IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME

THE HINDU , August 11, 1999 HEADLINE: Japan's n-programme in focus // Inu-acs

The International Atomic Energy Agency and other international nonproliferation bodies are particularly lax in monitoring the Japanese nuclear programmes and the United States-Japan Nuclear Agreement of 1988 violates several international norms regarding the transfer of weapons usable technology and hardware, says a report released by the National Security News Service. Titled "Thinking the unthinkable: will Japan deploy the bomb", the report postulates that Japan's status as a victim of nuclear bombings, its peoples distaste for nuclear weapons and its close ties with the U.S. and Europe create a perception among international monitors that Tokyo need not be held at the same standards as other non-nuclear weapons States. The report talks about the plutonium fuel cycle technology for developing nuclear power concluding that the breeder reactor programme's greater expense, unproven nature and particularly the large amount of plutonium it will create fuel the speculation that it is intended to provide weapons grade plutonium for a nuclear armed Japan. "This impression is particularly common in China and both Koreas, though it is not widely shared in the U.S. and Europe." As long as Japan remains stable and peaceful with firm economic and military ties with the West, there is little chance that the nuclear option will be exercised in the near future, the report says. "However, the fact that Japan has steadfastly maintained that it has the right and has taken action to ensure that it has the means to go nuclear, demands a higher degree of vigilance," it is noted.