DISADVANTAGE/PROLIFERATION

ISRAEL SCENARIO: IF ARAB NATIONS ARE ABOUT TO GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ISRAEL WILL LAUNCH A PRE-EMPTIVE NUCLEAR STRIKE

ISRAEL WILL LAUNCH A PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST ARAB POWERS ON THE BRINK OF PROLIFERATION

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Eventually a situation could arise with a handful of states both able and eager to exert nuclear pressure on Israel. Israel will most likely want to use force to stop its Islamic neighbours from developing nuclear weapons and will possibly be more inclined to do so after the signing of a US-Israeli memorandum, reported in The Washington Post on 1 November, in which Washington undertakes to assist Israel in countering any threat from ballistic missiles and WMDs.

ISRAEL WILL USE TACTICAL NEUTRON WMD TO TAKE OUT THREATENING IRAQI WMD

Uzi Mahnaimi and Tom Walker February 25, 2001, Sunday Times (London) HEADLINE: Defectors say Iraq tested nuclear bomb //VT2002acsln

Ariel Sharon, is expected to warn Colin Powell, the visiting American secretary of state, during talks today that the region may slide into war. Powell, who was in Egypt yesterday, urged Arab countries to join America in countering the threat posed by Saddam.

Israeli military sources say that Sharon has ordered Shaul Mofaz, the chief of staff, to prepare the army for a pre-emptive attack on Iraq's missile launch zone, which is close to its border with Syria.

Resurrecting and developing plans from the Gulf war, Sharon threatens to deploy tactical neutron bombs to "wipe out" the launch zone in the event that intelligence reports say a non-conventional weapons attack by Iraq is imminent, according to the sources.

Sources close to Sharon say he will tell Powell that Israel would not sit still and wait for Iraqi missiles to rain down on its towns, as it did in the 1991 Gulf war in reponse to American requests for restraint.

ISRAEL WILL LAUNCH A PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE ON IRAQI WMD

Uzi Mahnaimi and Tom Walker February 25, 2001 The Ottawa Citizen SECTION: NEWS, Pg. A6 HEADLINE: Iraq tested nuclear bomb, scientists say: Ex-Iraqi workers claim Saddam has stockpiled nuclear weapons //VT2002acsln

Sources close to Mr. Sharon say he will tell Mr. Powell that Israel would not sit still and wait for Iraqi missiles to rain down on its towns, as it did in response to U.S. requests for restraint during the Gulf War.

ISRAEL IS NOW LOCATING IRAQ & IRAN WMD SITES FOR AN UPCOMING DISARMING STRIKE

David Rudge February 26, 2001, The Jerusalem Post SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 2 HEADLINE: Iran, Iraq in non-conventional arms race //VT2002acsln

Shoham stressed that the threat to Israel from the non-conventional weapons race of both countries is very real and Israel has to increase intelligence efforts to meticulously monitor the progress Iran and Iraq are making in these fields.

"In this respect, close cooperation with the US should be encouraged. For its part, Israel also has to locate the facilities involved in both Iraq and Iran that are dealing with these specific programs so that they can be bombed at a later stage should this prove necessary," he said.

ISRAEL WILL STRIKE AT IRANIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES IT FEELS THREATENED BY, AND THE USA WILL SUPPLY THE WEAPONS

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Recently, Israel expressed concern about the possible Iranian development of an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) and even suggested a pre-emptive strike against Iran. This suggestion has even been put forward by a representative of Likud, Israel's Labour Party. According to an assessment by Israel's military intelligence, Iran will need between three to six years to acquire a nuclear capability, which would seem to make an Israeli strike a rather urgent matter. Some Arab analysts see a connection between Tel Aviv's warning of an Iranian nuclear bomb and Washington's quick offer to sell Israel 30 more F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft, which can reach both Iraq and Iran.

IRAN WILL RESPOND TO ANY ISRAELI DISARMING STRIKE IN A FRIGHTENING WAY

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

In an interview with the United Arab Emirates daily al-Ittihad, Shamkhani further emphasised that Iran will answer in a surprising way if Israel attacks the nuclear reactor in Bushehr or any other vital installation. It is also worth noticing that Damascus has expressed support for Tehran after Israel's threats.

ISRAEL WILL STRIKE AT IRANIAN MILITARY THREATS

Juan Romero, Jane's Intelligence Review March 1, 1999; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Charting reactions to the Islamic bomb //lnu-acs

Israeli Lieutenant-General Mofaz's declaration that Israel is willing to intervene against the Iranian missile systems is unambiguous evidence to Iranians and Arabs alike of Israel's hostile intentions.