DISADVANTAGE/PROLIFERATION

THE STAGE IS SET FOR A NEW ROUND OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

THE NEXT STAGE OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION WILL INVOLVE SMALL NUCLEAR POWERS

William Rees-Mogg, Sunday Times (London) , August 22, 1999, HEADLINE: Running from the new nuclear threat // Inu-acs

Ten years later the technology has advanced and the threat has changed. For decades to come nuclear proliferation will not create important nuclear powers, with the possible exception of Japan, but minor ones armed with relatively few missiles and relatively crude delivery systems. There will be two leagues of nuclear powers and the United States will be at the head of the premier league.

THERE ARE SEVERAL NATIONS WHICH ARE NOW ON THE BRINK OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Vladimir SoIntsev TASS, July 25, 1999, HEADLINE: Experts don't doubt Israeli nuclear potential expert // Inu-acs

There are no "other new nuclear powers" but the traditional five -- Russia, the United States, Great Britain, France and China -- India and Pakistan, which had nuclear tests' in May 1998, and Israel, the expert said. "Unfortunately, there is a number of regions where several countries think it politically and military expedient to have nuclear armaments," Blagovolin noted.

PROBLEM NOW IS SECONDARY PROLIFERATION — SMALLER NUCLEAR STATES SUPPLYING POTENTIAL NUCLEAR STATES

ROBERT WALL February 12, 2001 Aviation Week & Space Technology SECTION: WORLD NEWS & ANALYSIS; Vol. 154, No. 7; Pg. 30 HEADLINE: CIA Details Proliferation Concerns, Other Threats //VT2002acsln

Intelligence officials are witnessing a disturbing new trend in proliferation in which countries that obtained weapons through outside assistance are turning around and now re-selling that capability to other states.

The threat of what is being called ''secondary proliferation'' emanates largely from ''maturing state-sponsored programs such as those in Pakistan, Iran and India,'' Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet said in his wide-ranging, annual ''worldwide threat'' testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee. ''The secondary proliferation issue is the one I worry about the most,'' he told lawmakers.

A similar picture was sketched by Defense Intelligence Agency chief Rear Adm. Thomas R. Wilson, who testified that ''over time, as other nations [such as Iran] acquire more advanced capabilities, they too are likely to become important proliferators.''

THE ANTI-PROLIFERATION REGIME BROKE APART LAST SUMMER

Steven Mufson, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post July 17, 1999, Pg. A01 HEADLINE: Losing the Battle on Arms Control; Pakistan-India Nuclear Race Is Just Part of a Disturbing Trend //lnu-acs

This summer alone, Pakistan and India have smashed the Cold War theory cited by Pakistani leaders to justify their decision to match India's nuclear tests: that two countries with nuclear weapons would refrain from direct conflict with each other. In addition, U.S. officials say that North Korea, which American officials believe possesses a grapefruit-sized lump of material big enough to make one or two nuclear bombs, is preparing to test a long-range missile capable of hitting much of the western United States.