NEG/TERRORISM/BIOLOGICAL

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ARE TOO DIFFICULT FOR TERRORISTS TO DELIVER TO LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE

THE FORMULATION BARRIER BLOCKS AIRBORNE BIOTERRORIST ATTACKS

The problem of formulation, especially formulations for airborne attacks, is a difficult one to overcome. Briefly, after they have been produced, pathogens and toxins must be suspended in formulations in preparation for storage or attack. Possibly the major remaining secret of both the pre-1969 U.S. and pre-1992 Soviet BW programs pertains to the formulation of BW agents. After much empirical experimentation, both programs were able to develop methodologies for suspending or dissolving optimal quantities of weaponized pathogens and toxins in special solutions containing preservatives, adjuvants, and anti-static chemicals. The final emulsion or mixture is what is commonly called formulation. A specific formulation is required for every weaponized pathogen and toxin. Without properly constituted formulation, pathogens or toxins in storage or being transported are likely to loose their virulence or toxicity after a relatively short time (days to weeks); during spraying, solutions containing pathogens or toxins might foul nozzles so that no aerosol is emitted; after being emitted through the spray nozzle, electrostatic attraction between particles made up of pathogens or toxins can cause them to clump (bacteria as colloidal particles have electric charges), after which the clumps will fall ineffectually to the ground; and/or environmental stresses, such as UV light and desiccation, will kill or inactivate the aerosolized pathogens or toxins.

AIRBORNE ATTACKS BY BIOTERRORISTS ARE EXTREMELY UNLIKELY

The probability that terrorists or criminals will carry out airborne attacks with pathogens in the next five years is low. The reasons are that it is technically difficult to formulate pathogens and toxins for airborne dispersal, to operate dispersal mechanisms successfully, and to ensure proper meteorological conditions for effective aerosol dispersal. For these reasons, this type of attack is too difficult for most terrorist and criminal groups to attempt. The example of the Japanese sect Aum Shinrikyo is illuminative in regard to both pathogens and toxic chemicals (Kaplan and Marshall, 1996; Tucker, 1996). In the biological field, despite having evil intent, a membership that included highly trained bioscientists and chemists, ample funding, and ample time to carry out appropriate R&D, the sect failed utterly to produce effective biological and toxin weapons. It appears that there are two explanations for this failure. First, the sect used an avirulent strain of Bacillus anthracis (the causative agent of the disease anthrax) in their weapons and, second, they used a formulation of pathogens and substrate that clogged up the nozzles of their sprayers.

EVERYTHING HAS TO BE JUST RIGHT FOR A BIOTERRORIST ATTEMPT TO SUCCEED

In general, terrorists or criminals can carry out three types of biological attacks. First, the pathogen or toxin may be injected. This method is best used when the terrorist or criminal wishes to assassinate an individual. Since individual assassinations are not likely to stress our emergency response and health delivery systems, they are not considered further in this paper. Second, a quantity of pathogens or toxins may be used to contaminate or poison foods, beverages, or fomites (such as food supplements and medicines taken by mouth). If done skillfully, this method could cause hundreds of casualties. Third, pathogens or toxins may be suspended in a wet or dry formulation (see below) and dispersed over a target area as aerosolized particles. This type of attack could produce thousands of casualties, if three conditions were met: (1) the formulation was well designed for aerosol dispersal; (2) the aerosol particles produced by the dispersal mechanism were of optimal size and could withstand environmental stresses; and (3) meteorological conditions were just right for blanketing the target area with aerosol particles.