NEGATIVE/ROGUES/NORTH KOREA

CONCESSIONS TOWARDS NORTH KOREA ARE THE WRONG POLICY

NORTH KOREA'S POLICY OF SURVIVAL INVOLVES GAINING CONCESSIONS FROM THE WEST WHILE RESISTING REFORM AND ANY CHANGE ON THEIR PART

Nicholas Eberstadt The National Interest 1999 FALL HEADLINE: The Most Dangerous Country // acs-ln-12-28-99

By extracting resources from the international community through military blackmail, the North Korean leadership hopes to stave off the officially dreaded specters of "reform" and "opening." That international gambit (complemented and reinforced by acute political and intellectual repression at home) offers what Pyongyang takes as its best chance to steer its imperiled vessel of state between the Scylla of political liberalization and the Charybdis of economic collapse. As an endgame stratagem, this is not entirely misbegotten. In fact, it may be said already to have enjoyed a measure of tactical success.

FURTHER ACTION WITHOUT NORTH KOREAN CONCESSIONS REWARDS THEIR BLACKMAIL STRATEGY

Kenneth R. Timmerman.; The American Spectator November, 1999 HEADLINE: Bill Perry's Asian Portfolio Appeasing North Korea gives him time for serious work. // acs-ln-12-28-99

"The Japanese realize that the North Korean missile program is subject to reactivation at literally a moment's notice if for any reason the North Koreans are not satisfied with the level of U.S. investment or U.S. engagement," Richard Lawless, a former CIA station chief in South Korea, said by phone from Tokyo the day after Perry arrived. "They understand very well that those missiles are aimed at them." Now head of a Washington-based consulting and investment firm, Lawless minced no words. " This is just the continuation of the successful blackmail strategy employed by the North Koreans," he said.

FOLLOWING CONCESSIONS STRATEGY MEANS WAR IS INEVITABLE AND IT WILL BE WON BY NORTH KOREA

Kenneth R. Timmerman.; The American Spectator November, 1999 HEADLINE: Bill Perry's Asian Portfolio Appeasing North Korea gives him time for serious work. // acs-ln-12-28-99

Downs rebuts this argument in his book: "There will always be people in the West who fear that negotiation is the only alternative to war. North Korea has a different view: Negotiation is war by other means. The process of negotiation is cleverly managed by North Korea to postpone war while it strengthens its military ability and pressures the West to disarm. The danger for the West is that war may in fact be inevitable, but it will come only at a time of North Korea's choosing, when North Korea has perfected its weaponry and can be confident of surviving the conflict."

A CONTINUED SERIES OF CONCESSIONS SETS US UP FOR A HUGE MILITARY DISASTER IN NORTH KOREA

Catherine Edwards; Insight on the News November 08, 1999, SECTION: WORLD: NORTH KOREA; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: Communist Gulag in All Its Horror // acs-ln-12-28-99

Chuck Downs, author of Over the Line: North Korea's Negotiating Strategy, says the report and the administration's policy toward North Korea are self-delusional. "It is an 11th-hour attempt of an administration that knows that half of its Cadillac is on the train track. North Korea will increase its leverage and allow the United States to convince itself it has done something good and will then knock our Cadillac off the train track."

FALL OF SOVIET COMMUNISM SHOWED THAT A RECIPROCAL NEGOTIATING POLICY, NOT ONE OF CONTINUED CONCESSIONS, IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE

The New Republic NOVEMBER 8, 1999 SECTION: Pg. 21 HEADLINE: The Trouble With Treaties // acs-ln-12-28-99

When the shouting was over, however, Reagan's hang-tough strategy had worked. It turned out that the key to a more peaceful world--and, indeed, to smaller nuclear arsenals--was not American flexibility but dramatic political change within the Soviet Union itself. Only after the Soviets, under Mikhail Gorbachev, truly changed their foreign policy, from one of hostility toward the West to one of accommodation, was serious arms control possible.

APPEASEMENT WITHOUT ACCOMPANYING NORTH KOREAN CONCESSIONS HAS EXACERBATED NORTH KOREAN MILITARY THREATS

William R. Hawkins, U.S. Business and Industry Council. The Weekly Standard December 20, 1999 SECTION: FEATURES; Pg. 27 HEADLINE: Appeasing North Korea; The Clinton administration's policy has strengthened one of the world's most dangerous tyrannies // acs-ln-12-28-99

In short, appeasement is buying Pyongyang the time it needs to extend the reach of its weapons, until they can threaten the United States itself.

All of which only validates Kipling's final verse: So when you are requested to pay up or be molested, You will find it better policy to say: We never pay any one Dane-geld No matter how trifling the cost, For the end of that game is oppression and shame, And the nation that plays it is lost!

CONTINUED CONCESSIONS IN THE FACE OF NO CONCESSIONS BY THE OTHER SIDE ENCOURAGES MANY NATIONS AROUND THE WORLD TO ACQUIRE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

The lesson here -- bellicosity is rewarded with improved relations -- would seem to make the development of weapons of mass destruction an attractive course for despots clinging to power in failed states.

REWARDING NORTH KOREA BEFORE IT MAKES SUBSTANTIAL MOVES TO STOP MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS ENCOURAGES MANY OTHER NATIONS TO GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Not surprisingly, the North Koreans have concluded that defiance works. Their delegation arrived at the new round of talks with the United States in Berlin on November 15 with their usual stony faces and militant posture, confident that the threat of force will protect them from international pressure to reform. This sends a message about the usefulness of nuclear weapons that is heard well beyond Korea. It is a louder message by far than the pieties about nonproliferation that Clinton administration officials trot out whenever necessary and convenient.

AFTER A PERIOD OF EXTENSIVE CONCESSIONS, NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES

The new report, released November 3, is the work of the North Korea Advisory Group, a panel of nine Republican members appointed by speaker Dennis Hastert. Ben Gilman, chairman of the International Relations Committee, headed the group, whose members included the chairmen of Armed Services (Floyd Spence) and Intelligence (Porter Goss). The crux of their findings: that Pyongyang's development of weapons of mass destruction "has advanced considerably over the last five years." In particular, the panel cited evidence that North Korea is still developing nuclear weapons, even though activity was frozen at the Yongbyon and Taechon sites targeted by the 1994 agreement.

RELATIONS WITH NORTH KOREA MUST BE BACKD UP WITH THE STRENGTH OF MILITARY FORCE TO DETER NUCLEAR AND CHEMICAL ATTACK

Masahiko Sasajima, The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo), December 1, 1999, SECTION: Pg. 6 HEADLINE: N. Korea deterrent indispensable // acs-ln-12-28-99

Adm. Dennis Blair, commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, said in a recent interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun at a base in Hawaii that, should North Korea resort to using nuclear, biological or chemical weapons to attack the United States or its allies, there would be not only a war, but also a danger of Pyongyang's own regime breaking down.

On the whole, issues involving the Korean Peninsula are increasingly being seen as best dealt with through dialogue.

It is imperative, however, that the dialogue approach be backed up with a military deterrent. Blair said it was important that North Korea be regarded as still continuing with its missile development program. He added that he held no illusions about Pyongyang's intentions and negotiation tactics.

His remarks in the interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun were apparently made in reference to a review last year of the joint U.S.-South Korea counteroffensive strategy known as OP5027, which is designed to deal with possible surprise attacks by the North. The review put greater emphasis on prompt responses in the event of a biological or chemical weapons attack by Pyongyang.

MAKING EARLY CONCESSIONS IS COUNTERPRODUCTIVE TO CREATING BETTER RELATIONS WITH NORTH KOREA

The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo) December 4, 1999, SECTION: Pg. 6 HEADLINE: Editorial / No easy concessions to N. Korea // acs-ln-12-28-99

In negotiating with North Korea, particularly over the resumption of full-fledged talks aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations and over the provision of food aid, the government should maintain a consistent stance without too readily making concessions.

EARLY CONCESSIONS TO NORTH KOREA CREATE GREATER PROBLEMS AT A LATER DATE

The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo) December 15, 1999, SECTION: Pg. 6 HEADLINE: Editorials / Principles must be retained in N. Korea talks // acs-ln-12-28-99

However, the government should not take hasty action to restart negotiations with North Korea if the latter fails to act in good faith. Easy concessions to Pyongyang would cause trouble at a later date.