NEGATIVE/ROGUES/IRAN

MOVING TOO QUICKLY COULD PUT HARDLINERS IN POWER WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS

IF IRAN GETS THE BOMB WHILE THE CONSERVATIVES ARE IN CONTROL THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE

Thomas Friedman, The Denver Post, June 10, 1998, HEADLINE: Iran: the next nuclear domino//LXNX HXM

If Iran obtains a nuclear bomb and the most radical ayatollahs are in charge there, it will further undermine stability in the Middle East. If Iran obtains nuclear technology and the moderate forces now on the rise there can consolidate their hold on Iranian politics, it is possible that Iran can once again be a bulwark for stability in the region.

IRAN WILL BE THE NEXT NUCLEAR STATE, THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHO WILL BE IN POWER TO CONTROL IT

Thomas Friedman, The Denver Post, June 10, 1998, HEADLINE: Iran: the next nuclear domino//LXNX HXM

It's probably only a matter of time, a decade or less, before Iran, for its own geostrategic reasons, develops or acquires a nuclear device. Who knows, maybe Pakistan, reeling from sanctions, will sell Iran one. The only question is what regime will be in power in Tehran with its finger on the trigger. There is a struggle now under way in Iran over exactly that question. The outcome of that struggle is a vital U.S. strategic interest. It must be defined as such, and it must be acted upon as such.

MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR WAR WOULD HAVE HORRIFRIC IMPACTS

STEVEN DAVID, Prof. Political Science Johns Hopkins, 1997; US-ISRAELI RELATIONS AT THE CROSSROADS, pp. 101-2

American interests will be hurt if nuclear weapons are used in the Middle East. Even if confined to the Middle East, nuclear conflict could make subsequent nuclear war more likely, while encouraging the proliferation of nuclear weapons to still more countries. A Middle Eastern nuclear conflict could produce severe environmental damage, and if it occurs in the Persian Gulf would cause great economic distress to the United States. American allies such as Israel and Egypt are potential targets of a nuclear strike.

BEST WAY TO DEAL WITH IRANIAN PROLIFERATION IS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND NOT RISK PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS INTO THE HANDS OF THE HARDLINERS

The Economist, February 26, 2000, HEADLINE: The Iranian opportunity // lxnx hxm

All this is important. But a main reason behind America's sanctions is to deny Iran the money that it might otherwise spend on weapons of mass destruction. Iran, once the victim of Iraqi aggression, lives in a rough neighbourhood, surrounded by people who not only have ballistic missiles but also nuclear capacity (Russia, India, Pakistan, American forces in the Gulf). It has signed the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty, but remains suspect. It is bound to look to its own security. But it would lessen suspicion if it subscribed to the newly tightened nuclear safeguards -- which would cost it nothing if, as it claims, it has no military nuclear ambitions.

Iran is on the cusp of reformation. There are still powerful forces bent on keeping it in the darkness of petty rules and a harsh clerical judiciary. Its reforming leaders, rejecting any hint of patronage, still feel they have to move with great caution in their dealings with the United States. But the election gives America an unusual opportunity to help the reformists and further its own strategic interests. It should seize it.

A CONSERVATIVE BACKLASH WILL SET THE REFORM PROCESS BACK BY SEVERAL YEARS. A SLOW REFORM PROCESS IS BEST.

Howard Schneider, Washington Post Foreign Service, The Washington Post, November 21, 1999, HEADLINE: Clerics Defense Puts the System On Trial in Iran; Case Highlights Conflicts Over Role of State and Islam in Iran//lxnx hxm

"The conservatives are really strong" and, if threatened, could respond with enough arrests and repression to set the process back several years, said Mohammad Hadh Semati, a political science professor at Tehran University. "But they are beginning to act in the framework Khatemi has set up.... The willingness to suppress is eroding. In the long run we expect the process will go on, inch by inch, cat and mouse, reform from within."

EMBRACING KHATAMI RISKS A HARDLINER BACKLASH WHICH COULD FUEL TERRORISM

James Phillips, Senior Policy Analyst, January 23, 1998. Press Iran's Khatami To Follow Words With Deeds, The Heritage Foundation -- Backgrounder No. I I 52//Ixnx hxm

If the Clinton Administration rushes to embrace Khatami diplomatically, it runs the risk of provoking radical diehards to undermine him, possibly by using covert terrorist attacks to block improved relations. Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the past have undertaken terrorist attacks that have disrupted their own government's efforts to improve relations with France and Saudi Arabia. An American effort to improve relations therefore could increase, rather than diminish, the short-run risks of Iranian terrorism. The Clinton Administration also should not overestimate its ability to influence the course of Iran's complex factional struggles. It should learn from the Reagan Administration's mistake in trying to cooperate with and sell arms to Iranian moderates in the mid1980s. Iranian factions are likely to pocket American concessions without reciprocating with a lasting quid pro quo that could become a political handicap in Iran's kaleidoscopic internal politics. The United States should avoid reaching out to Iranian factions, even if they appear to be less hostile than competing factions, because even if such factions did deliver promised concessions, this would only discredit them in Iran's supercharged political arena, where an American connection can be politically fatal. Instead of seeking fragile accommodations with Iranian moderates, the U.S. should work relentlessly to penalize Iran for policies that threaten American interests. This can help give relatively pragmatic Iranian leaders such as Khatami potent political ammunition against anti-American hardliners.