NEGATIVE/ROGUES/IRAN

THE PROBLEMS OF IRAN ARE BEST ADDRESSED BY LEAVING IT ALONE TO REFORM ITSELF

NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS, THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN WILL REFORM ITSELF

STANLEY REED; February 7, 2000 Business Week SECTION: BOOKS; Number 3667; Pg. 19 HEADLINE: IS THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC UNRAVELING? // acs-ln-02-10-2000

Whatever happens in the short term, Wright argues, ''the Islamic republic is not likely to survive in its current form.'' The ''turbaned classes,'' she argues, will have to share power with those who wear ties.

DEMOGRAPHICS MEAN HARD LINERS IN IRAN WILL HAVE TO BEND TO THE MODERATES

Michael Lelyveld The Boston Herald, January 30, 2000 SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. A47 HEADLINE: OP-ED; AS YOU WERE SAYING ...; Normalization of U.S.-Iran ties may sprout from corn sales // acs-ln-2/4/2000

The median age of Iran's 65 million people is under 21. Many young people are smitten with American music, freedom and prosperity. Even without U.S. lures, Iranians have suffered with religious rigidity and economic hardship for too long.

The dictators have tried to stack the deck with various tricks, such as raising the voting age. But they are likely to bend to the moderates rather than see the lid of the Islamic Revolution blown off.

IRAN IS BECOMING MORE INTEGRATED INTO THE WORLD COMMUNITY, AND IT IS NOT DICTATED BY THE KHATAMI-RADICAL STRUGGLE

Afshin Molavi, The Washington Post December 10, 1999, SECTION: OP-ED; Pg. H01 HEADLINE: Iran MendsTies With Europeans; Businessmen Find Myriad Opportunities // ln-acs 12/18/99

While Iran's raging power struggle between reformist supporters of President Mohammed Khatemi and his powerful conservative rivals captures headlines, a quiet revolution has been taking place in Iranian foreign policy as Tehran also improves its ties with the Arab world and consolidates its close ties to Japan, China and Southeast Asia.

Iran's ties with the European Union are of particular importance, Foreign Ministry officials said, because they signal most vividly the country's return to the international community after years of isolation.

CONSERVATIVES CAN NEVER HOPE TO REVERSE THE TIDE OF REFORMS IN IRAN

THE HINDU, February 7, 2000 HEADLINE: A defining moment for Iran // acs-ln-02-10-2000

Anyone who has seen this enjoyment of liberty grow and strengthen in Iran over the last two years would find it difficult to believe that this trend can be reversed. Since Mr. Khatami has been able to bring about this change despite being saddled with an obstructionist Parliament (the outgoing Majlis was overwhelmingly dominated by conservatives) and since he will be President for another year and a half, even the conservatives probably do not believe that they can speedily reverse the trend if they do win the election. The most that they can realistically hope for at the moment is that they will be able to hold the line.

THE IRANIAN CLERGY ARE BENDING WITH THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE

JOHN F. BURNS; February 6, 2000, The Plain Dealer SECTION: NATIONAL; Pg. 4A HEADLINE: MULLAHS FACE NEW RESISTANCE IN IRAN // acs-ln-02-10-2000

But the winds of change are blowing through Iran, and the clergy are bending with them. While the courts continue to imprison dissident clerics, editors and other activists in an attempt to blunt the popular clamor, many Iranians are speaking up, in ways harshly uncomplimentary to the mullahs.

IRANIAN CONSERVATIVES CANNOT UNITE TO OPPOSE REFORM ELEMENTS

Janet Matthews Information Services, World of Information Country Report November 2, 1999 SECTION: Comment & Analysis; Country Profile; Forecast; Pg. 12 HEADLINE: IRAN: POLITICS // ln-acs 12/18/99

However, despite their success in orchestrating the political machinery, the conservatives remain a disparate group whose prevalence throughout the political structure secures their position while paradoxically impeding them from uniting into a coherent political faction. Meanwhile, the reformists were focussing on the local elections of 1999 and the majlis elections due in 2000.

DEMOGRAPHICS GUARANTEE THAT SUPPORT FOR KHATAMI WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE

Janet Matthews Information Services, World of Information Country Report November 2, 1999 SECTION: Comment & Analysis; Country Profile; Statistics; Forecast; Pg. 8 HEADLINE: IRAN: INTRODUCTION // ln-acs 12/18/99

The electoral support that President Khatami enjoys reflects the developing nature of Iranian society. By 1997 for example, 60 per cent of the population lived in urban areas (up from 53 per cent in 1985) and although illiteracy remains high in relation to western countries at 28 per cent, it is 21 per cent lower than in 1985. The emergence of urban educated youth as a political force - evidenced by popular demonstrations that achieved the temporary release of Karbaschi - may suggest that the political pendulum is swinging toward the moderates. But while demographics may be on their side, the experience of other reforming regimes suggests that the success of the moderates will depend on their ability to achieve an accommodation with powerfully entrenched - and still popular - conservative elements.

IRANIAN PUBLIC OPINION FAVORS A COMPLETE OVERHAUL OF THE GOVERNMENT

THE HINDU, February 7, 2000 HEADLINE: A defining moment for Iran // acs-ln-02-10-2000

Nevertheless, the public mood is in favour of a complete overhaul of the given political dispensation despite the claims of the upholders of the system that they speak for the true revolutionary ethos. It is this very claim that is under challenge as the objective conditions as well as the popular will dictate that a drastic reinterpretation of the revolutionary credo should be carried out. The system, with supreme authority vested in a senior cleric and other clerics occupying key positions in all social institutions, has ossified over the 20 years since it was set up.

REFORMS WILL REDUCE THE ROLE OF RELIGIOUS LEADERS BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE IT

THE HINDU, February 7, 2000 HEADLINE: A defining moment for Iran // acs-ln-02-10-2000

Iran's clergy has neither the learning, the experience nor even the basic aptitudes necessary to guide the country while it strives to cope with a fast-changing international situation. Neither do they have the ability to meet the myriad aspirations and anxieties of a developing society. Iranians are a religious people and in the practice of the Shias, who are by far the majority, there is a strong element of loyalty to the clergy, especially the Grand Ayatollahs. Even those strongly opposed to the clerical regime do not propose that the clergy should cease to provide moral guidance. But they demand the scope and space to express themselves in the various dimensions of life free from close supervision by the clerics.