NEGATIVE/ROGUES/IRAQ

RENEWED INSPECTION SYSTEM IN IRAQ IS COUNTERPRODUCTIVE

RETURN OF NEW UN ARMS INSPECTORS TO IRAQ WILL DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD

DANIEL BYMAN, Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. Foreign Affairs January, 2000 / February, 2000 SECTION: ESSAYS; Pg. 119 HEADLINE: A Farewell to Arms Inspections // acs-ln-2/4/2000

THE RETURN of U.N. arms inspectors to Iraq would do more harm than good. Although politicians and pundits alike call for renewed inspections, the inspectors' return not only would not remove Iraq's remaining weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities, but -- more ominously -- might actually help develop Iraq's WMD programs over the long term and make a mockery of arms control in general. Surprising as it sounds, an impasse over inspections is actually the best realistic outcome for the United States. A continued standoff will better position the United States to hamper Saddam Hussein's quest for WMD -- and avoid being party to the deliberate flouting of U.N. resolutions and arms control agreements.

RENEWED INSPECTIONS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TOTALLY COUNTERPRODUCTIVE

DANIEL BYMAN, Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. Foreign Affairs January, 2000 / February, 2000 SECTION: ESSAYS; Pg. 119 HEADLINE: A Farewell to Arms Inspections // acs-ln-2/4/2000

Clearly, an impasse is not a lasting solution to the problem of Iraqi doomsday weapons. But the perfect should not become the enemy of the good. Renewed inspections would, however unwittingly, help Saddam develop his nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs. Opposing inspections may require Washington to stake out some unpopular diplomatic positions, but given the stakes involved, the danger of offending Saddam's defenders is easily worth the risk.

NEW ENFEEBLED INSPECTION REGIME THREATENS ARMS CONTROL EFFORTS

DANIEL BYMAN, Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. Foreign Affairs January, 2000 / February, 2000 SECTION: ESSAYS; Pg. 119 HEADLINE: A Farewell to Arms Inspections // acs-ln-2/4/2000

Those who believe most strongly in the value of arms control should be those most outraged by the prospect of enfeebled inspectors heading to Iraq. If the United States and the other major powers close their eyes and declare Iraq to be in compliance, they discredit the very premises of arms control: that states are bound to their international agreements and that the international community has a duty to enforce these obligations. Other states will learn from Baghdad's example, cheating or ignoring their commitments if they feel that they will pay no price.

IF IRAQ SUCCESSFULLY DEFIES NEW INSPECTIONS, IT WILL SPARK NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN OTHER NATIONS

DANIEL BYMAN, Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. Foreign Affairs January, 2000 / February, 2000 SECTION: ESSAYS; Pg. 119 HEADLINE: A Farewell to Arms Inspections // acs-ln-2/4/2000

Iraq's successful defiance would encourage proliferation in other troubled regions. If international frameworks, U.N. resolutions, and solemn statements by the leaders of major powers mean little in Iraq, states in other dangerous regions will be more likely to seek nuclear weapons, anthrax, and sarin gas. Iraq's experience would demonstrate that the international community will let even the most brutal and bellicose leaders acquire WMD, thereby encouraging their unhappy neighbors to seek WMD deterrents of their own.

IF IRAQ DEFIES NEW INSPECTORS AFTER THEY ARRIVE, IT COULD TRIGGER A NEW MILITARY CONFRONTATION

DANIEL BYMAN, Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. Foreign Affairs January, 2000 / February, 2000 SECTION: ESSAYS; Pg. 119 HEADLINE: A Farewell to Arms Inspections // acs-ln-2/4/2000

If Baghdad defied the inspectors, Washington would soon find itself in a nasty dilemma comparable to what it faced in December 1998 when it launched the Desert Fox bombing campaign: either ignore Iraq's noncompliance and deception and pave the way for declaring Iraq free of WMD, or use force to demand access. Past shows of force, however, have brought at best limited progress on inspections. Moreover, in contrast to the current on-and-off bombing of Iraq, Baghdad rather than Washington would control the timing of any confrontation.

IF INSPECTORS CERTIFY IRAQ AS FREE OF WMD, THAT WOULD FREE UP IRAQ TO EASILY GO AHEAD AND PRODUCE THEM

DANIEL BYMAN, Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. Foreign Affairs January, 2000 / February, 2000 SECTION: ESSAYS; Pg. 119 HEADLINE: A Farewell to Arms Inspections // acs-ln-2/4/2000

A more fundamental concern, however, is that inspectors might certify that Iraq has ended its quest for WMD. If Iraq is allowed to control the location of the inspections, it could eventually get a passing grade on its WMD programs. This is particularly likely if the United States and its allies are unwilling to back up the inspectors with force, which would let Iraq return to its old tricks of deceiving them or denying them access. Such a certification would lead to the end of the sanctions regime slapped on Iraq after it invaded Kuwait in 1990, which is justified today by Iraq's continued WMD programs. The end of sanctions would, in turn, give Saddam control over Iraqi spending and free him to purchase WMD-related materials from abroad. The nominal success of inspections today would give Saddam a free hand to develop WMD programs tomorrow.

FAILURE OF NEW INSPECTORS TO IRAQ WILL DISCREDIT ARMS CONTROL INSPECTIONS EVERYWHERE

DANIEL BYMAN, Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation. Foreign Affairs January, 2000 / February, 2000 SECTION: ESSAYS; Pg. 119 HEADLINE: A Farewell to Arms Inspections // acs-ln-2/4/2000

The discrediting of inspections in Iraq could seriously harm future arms control efforts in other parts of the world. Even Iraq's most vocal supporters know that it retains some WMD capacity and almost certainly will pursue WMD in the future. As Richard Butler, the former executive chair of the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) charged with ending Iraq's WMD programs, noted, "Saddam Hussein has broken all of Iraq's nonproliferation undertakings. . . . These facts are known in the Security Council, including by those permanent members who have given Saddam strong support." Giving Baghdad a passing grade thus makes a mockery of other arms control regimes, encouraging countries to defy and cheat international agreements.