NEGATIVE/ROGUES/GENERAL

TURN: SO-CALLED SMART SANCTIONS ON IRAQ ARE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE

"SMART SANCTIONS" APPROACH BENEFITS SADAM HUSSEIN

ROBERT WALL and DAVID A. FULGHUM March 5, 2001 Aviation Week & Space Technology SECTION: WORLD NEWS ANALYSIS; Vol. 154, No. 10; Pg. 41 HEADLINE: Altering Sanctions May Benefit Iraq's Rearming //VT2002acsln

Another skeptic of the new approach is Sen. John Warner (R-Va.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. ''What do we get in return from Saddam Hussein?'' he said of the still poorly defined sanctions reassessment.

U.S. national security officials are keenly aware of the need to maintain some sort of control on Iraq's weapons program. In a recent report to Congress, the Central Intelligence Agency notes that ''if economic sanctions against Iraq were lifted, Baghdad probably would increase its attempts to acquire missile-related items from foreign sources, regardless of any future United Nations' monitoring and continuing restrictions on long-range ballistic missile programs.''

In fact, sanctions relief could strengthen Hussein's hold on the country. CIA director George J. Tenet told lawmakers recently that existing U.N. efforts to allow Iraq to sell oil in order to feed its population are aiding the Iraqi regime. ''High oil prices and Saddam's use of the oil-for-food program have helped him manage domestic pressure,'' Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee last month. A new approach would likely increase the amount of money available under the U.N.-controlled oil-for-food program.

BUSH ADMINISTRATION CHANGES IN SANCTIONS ON IRAQ HAVE INCREASED THE WMD THREAT

The Bush Administration has dropped the second shoe in its evolving policy toward Iraq, offering the prospect of changes to the sanctions that could aid Saddam Hussein's ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

The review of sanctions policy was announced by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell during a tour of the Middle East last week. It followed only a few days after the new Administration's first major move on Iraq, a large air attack on the country's air defenses by U.S. and British forces. The raid, which was initially described as ''routine,'' now turns out to have involved almost 80 aircraft including the 24 strike aircraft -- F-15Es, F/A-18s and Tornados.

IRAQ WILL ALWAYS GET AROUND SANCTIONS NO MATTER HOW "SMART" THEY ARE

Gerald M. Steinberg, Dir. Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation, Political Studies, Bar-Ilan University March 2, 2001, The Jerusalem Post SECTION: OPINION; Pg. 1A HEADLINE: Not-so-smart sanctions for Iraq //VT2002acsln

No matter how "smart" the sanctions are, the Iraqi leader will find ways to siphon off funds to meet his own goals. If the import inspections are relaxed and commercial flights to Iraq resume, the pace of Iraqi rearmament will increase quickly. Perhaps the flow of major weapons systems can still be blocked, but dual-use items that can be used for civilian purposes, but are really designed for war, will pour in again.

"SMART SANCTIONS" ARE ACTUALLY A WAY TO LET IRAQ CAUSE MORE TROUBLE

When the rhetoric is stripped away, "smart sanctions" are just another means to let Saddam venture further from his box. There are no easy solutions, but this is no reason to cling to the pretense that the barriers to Iraqi rearmament can be relaxed without increasing the threat.

"SMART SANCTIONS" ON IRAQ WILL FAIL

The Boston Globe March 1, 2001, SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. A14 HEADLINE: NOT-SO-SMART SANCTIONS //VT2002acsln

To Powell's credit, the new sanctions he discussed with Arab leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Jordan would not give Saddam the unconditional control of oil revenues he demands. Instead, the Powell sanctions would allow a much freer flow of commercial imports into Iraq, even permitting dual-use items such as water pumps or refrigerator trucks that might be used in weapons programs. Powell also wants to tighten the screening for weapons at Iraq's borders. Past experience suggests, however, that Saddam will find ways to import all the items he needs for his weapons of mass destruction.

"SMART SANCTIONS" DO NOT BLUNT IRAQ’S ADVANTAGE IN THE PROPAGANDA WAR

The Boston Globe March 1, 2001, SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. A14 HEADLINE: NOT-SO-SMART SANCTIONS //VT2002acsln

Moreover, Powell's "smart" sanctions would not negate Saddam's propaganda on the theme of an American double standard for Arabs and Israelis. Nor would those sanctions dismantle Saddam's weapons of mass destruction. As for Powell's aim of reconstituting the coalition that resisted Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, Iraq's neighbors have a single worldly criterion for appraising US policy. They want to know if Washington will liberate Iraqis from their tormentor. If not - if the new administration is going to leave Saddam in power with his sarin gas, his anthrax spores, and his nuclear devices - then the neighbors don't want to bear the brunt of his rage after the Americans poke him in the eye.

NEW "SMART SANCTIONS" ON IRAQ WILL DO NO BETTER

The Independent (London) February 27, 2001, SECTION: COMMENT; Pg. 3 HEADLINE: LEADING ARTICLE: LET US DECLARE VICTORY OVER SADDAM, END SANCTIONS AND START AFRESH IN THE REGION //VT2002acsln

We repeat, mantra-like, that we have no quarrel with the Iraqi people - only with their leader. But we are losing the propaganda war; not only many Arabs, but many in the West believe that we are responsible for the undoubted suffering of ordinary Iraqis. Mooted "smart sanctions", which target the leadership but not the people, are unlikely to make very much difference, at least until the UN itself can achieve a new consensus.