NEGATIVE/ROGUES/GENERAL

THESE NATIONS HAVE MISSILES FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES

NATIONS DEVELOP MISSILE CAPABILITY TO GAIN NATIONAL PRESTIGE AND TO EARN MONEY THROUGH SATELLITE LAUNCHES

Duncan Lennox, is Editor of Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, Jane's Intelligence Review September 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Control regimes fail to stem the spread // Inu-acs

National status and prestige are probably the greatest motivators for states to develop ballistic missiles, but the chance of earning hard currency by gaining a space launch vehicle capability must be a close second. With the technologies involved with longer-range ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles so closely related, a state could switch tracks in a relatively short timescale if a new threat were to emerge.

CURRENT NORTH KOREAN, PAKISTANI, AND IRAN MISSILES ARE DESIGNED FOR SATELLITE LAUNCH

Duncan Lennox, is Editor of Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, Jane's Intelligence Review September 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Control regimes fail to stem the spread // Inu-acs

The demand for satellites and space launch vehicles is growing, and there is a gap in the market at the lower cost and smaller payload end of the range. North Korea, Pakistan and Iran have developed the necessary capabilities to build space launch vehicles: all have stated their intention to launch satellites in the future. It is therefore unclear if the new designs are the continued development of a ballistic missile capability or aimed at achieving a space launch vehicle capability. It is more acceptable, from an international point of view, to be developing and testing space launch vehicles than ballistic missiles. It is possible that the solid-propellant experience of Pakistan and Iran (which have both developed solid-propellant unguided rockets and short-range ballistic missiles) has been put together with 'Scud C' tests by North Korea, Iran and Syria, and No-dong/Ghauri 1 and 2/Shahab 3 tests by North Korea, Pakistan and Iran to form a collective programme that has been the basis of the Taep'odong 1 space launch vehicle. This could provide the four countries with a small satellite launch capability by 2001.