NEGATIVE/ROGUES/GENERAL

ROGUE STATE MISSILE DANGERS ARE EXAGGERATED

MISSILE THREATS FROM UNFRIENDLY NATIONS ARE WILDLY EXAGGERATED

ANDREW KOCH JDW Staff Reporter February 14, 2001 Jane's Defence Weekly SECTION: HEADLINES; Vol. 35; No. 7 HEADLINE: USA ponders future threats //VT2002acsln

The acting head of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), Thomas Fingar, sounded a more cautious note. Fingar said: "Missile proliferation has occurred at a slower rate than predicted by previous estimates" despite a "dramatic increase in the aggregate number of short-range ballistic missiles". He also noted that "the number of countries possessing or seeking to acquire ballistic missiles remains small" and "most programs appear to be advancing more slowly than anticipated." Moreover, he added, "INR assesses that, among states seeking long- range missiles, only North Korea could potentially threaten the US homeland with ballistic missiles in this decade." Wilson and Tenet had included Iran and Iraq to that list, albeit with a lower degree of probability.

BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS ARE NOT NEW

In fact, the U.S. has faced a threat from long-range missiles for 40 years. Thus the new threats have to be balanced against the old threats and other priorities.

BALLISTIC MISSILES ARE THE LEAST LIKELY DELIVERY MECHANISMS FOR WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

National missile defense (NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE) provides no defense against the most likely future attacks on U.S., which would not be delivered by missiles.

The methods of delivery have already been demonstrated at the World Trade Center in New York, the Federal Building in Oklahoma City and the subway in Tokyo. A nuclear weapon is much more likely to be delivered in a bale of marijuana or in a truck than from a ballistic missile.

THREATS FROM SO-CALLED "ROGUE" STATES ARE 10 YEARS AWAY

There is currently no credible threat to the United States that missile defense will address. Only Russia, China, France and Great Britain have long range ballistic missiles capable of hitting the United States, and they are U.S. allies. Assuming that North Korea and Iraq have well-financed programs and make good use of technology and advice from Russia and China; North Korea is at least 5 years away from obtaining an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) loaded with weapons of mass destruction that could reach the US, where as Iraq is 10-15 years away from building an ICBM capability.

SO-CALLED "ROGUE" STATES CANNOT BUILD MISSILES ABLE TO HIT THE USA

Janadas Devan The Straits Times (Singapore), October 31, 1999, SECTION: Review Focus shield"; Pg. 41 HEADLINE: Missile talks up in the air // ln-acs-11-11-99

It is highly implausible that North Korea, Iran or Iraq could be capable of building such missiles.

"They would need to build high-thrust engines, develop special high-strength material that can withstand high temperatures, and the like," a Russian official is reported to have said.

ROGUE STATES ARE DECADES AWAY FROM MISSILE ATTACKS

William D. Hartung and Michelle Ciarrocca, the World Policy Institute Los Angeles Times, January 30, 2000, SECTION: Opinion; Part M; Page 2; HEADLINE: THE WORLD / MISSILE DEFENSE; PENTAGON SPELLS 'SAFETY' N-M-D //ACS-LN-2/4/2000

But this emerging threat of attack has been exaggerated. The so-called rogue states, including North Korea, Iran and Iraq, are still many years--if not decades--away from mastering the technology to produce and mount a nuclear weapon that can be delivered to a target thousands of miles away by means of a multistage ballistic missile.

IRAQ CANNOT BUILD A 3000 KM MISSILE BY 2005

RUDIGER MONIAC JDW Correspondent March 7, 2001 Jane's Defence Weekly SECTION: HEADLINES; Vol. 35; No. 10 HEADLINE: Iraq repairs WMD production sites //VT2002acsln

Despite the intelligence estimates, a former inspector from the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) in Iraq, Tim McCarthy, said: "It would be very unlikely" that Iraq could build a 3,000km-range missile by mid-decade. He noted that although Iraq has been able to produce solid-fuel propellant in small batches at the Al-Mamoun facility 40km south of Baghdad for some time, the Iraqi regime was having trouble building or acquiring larger mixing bowls to increase the production size. Such efforts would be key if Iraq were to upgrade to a large and more powerful motor diameter. McCarthy, now of the Monterey Institute of International Studies, said Iraq had tried to build an ammonium perchlorate pilot production plant in the past.