DETERRENCE/DETERRENCE WORKS

INHERENCY: NEW BUSH APPROACH TO DETERRENCE MAKES IT EFFECTIVE

BUSH ADMINISTRATION SEEKS TO INTEGRATE NON-NUCLEAR SCENARIOS INTO THE DETERRENCE SYSTEM

PAUL MANN January 22, 2001 Aviation Week & Space Technology SECTION: WASHINGTON IN TRANSITION; Vol. 154, No. 4; Pg. 26 HEADLINE: Bush Team Rethinks Strategic Doctrine //VT2002acsln

Incoming Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld will push to broaden Cold War deterrence theory to non-nuclear scenarios and the panoply of 21st century hybrid threats, like mass destruction terrorism.

The key to deterring regional warfare and global terrorism in the post-Soviet world ''of no bear, but many snakes'' is to make greater use of intelligence collection and command-and-control space operations, Rumsfeld claims. His objective is to strengthen the strategic psychology that underlies the ancient precepts of deterrence.

By strategic psychology, he means refashioning deterrence to preempt war and aggression of all kinds, before the mentalities and conditions that lead to conflict crystallize. Deterrence, by this reasoning, is less a matter of deploying missiles and warheads than understanding an opponent's attitudes, psychology and national character.

NEW DETERRENCE SYSTEM STRESSES INCREASED COMMAND AND CONTROL, COMMUNICATION AND INTELLIGENCE

PAUL MANN January 22, 2001 Aviation Week & Space Technology SECTION: WASHINGTON IN TRANSITION; Vol. 154, No. 4; Pg. 26 HEADLINE: Bush Team Rethinks Strategic Doctrine //VT2002acsln

To broaden deterrence and build up its technological muscle, Rumsfeld proposes a full-scale modernization of U.S. command, control, communications, intelligence and space capabilities. ''Credible deterrence no longer can be based solely on the prospect of punishment through massive retaliation,'' he testified at his Senate confirmation hearing. ''It must be based on a combination of offensive nuclear and non-nuclear defensive capabilities, working together to deny potential adversaries the opportunity and the benefits that come from the threat or the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against our forces [and] our homeland, as well as those of our allies.''

U.S. forces will have to be transformed if they are to devalue and deter enemy investment in WMD and their delivery systems. This transformation presupposes an advanced command/control/space infrastructure, to sustain effective diplomacy as well as military operations, Rumsfeld told lawmakers. Until the end of last year, he headed a commission on national security in space that has recommended creation of a senior interagency group for space within the National Security Council, appointment of a new undersecretary of Defense for space, intelligence and information and naming an executive committee to ensure that the Defense secretary and director of the Central Intelligence Agency confer regularly on space security issues (AW&ST Jan. 15, p. 433).

NEW DETERRENCE INITIATIVE WILL ALLOW USA TO UNDERSTAND UNCONVENTIONAL THREATS

PAUL MANN January 22, 2001 Aviation Week & Space Technology SECTION: WASHINGTON IN TRANSITION; Vol. 154, No. 4; Pg. 26 HEADLINE: Bush Team Rethinks Strategic Doctrine //VT2002acsln

Through state-of-the-art intelligence and space operations, Rumsfeld hopes to reach a deeper understanding of the human motives that inspire aggression and how to stem them. He did not spell out the intelligence capabilities and psychoanalytic techniques he has in mind. But beyond command and control, he appeared to be referring to major improvements in human intelligence gathering, or ''humint'' in the military lexicon. He said U.S. spy agencies and the Pentagon must collaborate more closely, and come to ''know more about what people think and how they behave, and how their behavior can be altered.''

At another point in his testimony, he asserted, ''We need to do everything we can to fashion a set of deterrents, a nest, a fabric that does the best possible [security] job for this country.'' No single set of forces and weapons can deter all threats. ''There are different types of leaders with different types of motivations, and we have to do a lot better job of thinking through deterrence.''