IMPACTS: NMD INSPIRED EXTENSION OF MISSILE DEFENSE IN ASIA CREATES INTOLERABLE NUCLEAR RISKS

USA ASIAN MISSILE DEFENSE EFFORTS WILL LEAD TO DIRECT CHINESE COMPETITION WITH THE USA

Evan S Medeiros and Jing-dong Yuan January 1, 2001 Jane's Intelligence Review HEADLINE: A US military presence in Asia: offshore balancer or local sheriff? //VT2002acsln

US TMD programmes in Asia raise similar concerns in Beijing. These contrasting visions between the USA and China of alliance and regional security suggest the emergence of a competition for influence between Beijing and Washington in the Asian theatre.

MISSILE DEFENSE TESTS CAUSE INSTABILITY IN ASIA AND HURT RELATIONS WITH ALLIES LIKE JAPAN

Eric Watkins, international relations analyst based in London, The San Diego Union-Tribune, October 21, 1999, SECTION: NEWS Pg. A-37 HEADLINE: Russians say U.S. anti-ballistic centerpiece undermines ABM treaty // ln-10-29-99-acs

Ominously, Moscow even suggested that America's tests of the ABM system are enough to cause tension in the Asia-Pacific region, hinting at problems for U. S. allies like Japan.

CHINA IS WORRIED ABOUT AMERICAN NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE, BUT EVEN MORE WORRIED ABOUT RESULTING ASIAN THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE

David Buchan and Stephen Fidler: Financial Times (London) October 6, 1999, Pg. 22 HEADLINE: Star Wars strikes back: Will a US plan to create a shield against missile attacks start a new arms race, // ln-acs

China is worried about an American NMD, but it is even more concerned about Washington providing similar shields - so-called theatre missile defence (TMD) systems - to Japan or, worst of all, Taiwan.

THEATER NUCLEAR DEFENSE IN ASIA WILL LEAD TO A HUGE INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR ARMS RACE

Steven Mufson, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post September 5, 1999SECTION: A SECTION; Pg. A06 HEADLINE: Korean Missiles Push U.S. Defense Plans; Some Fear Buildup Could Hurt Stability // lnu-acs

And U.S. plans to develop a theater missile defense system--which would protect troops in the field, rather than the whole country--have heightened Chinese concerns that the United States might provide an antimissile umbrella for Taiwan, reestablish military cooperation that was limited after Washington and Beijing opened diplomatic relations and make a Taiwanese declaration of independence more likely.

If China responds by increasing its own missile arsenal, other regional powers--Japan, India and Taiwan--could respond with additions to their own stockpiles. India's efforts would prod Pakistan to build up its arsenal too, and China's response would also increase pressure in the United States for further military precautions.

"This is the classic way arms races get going," said Charles Freeman, formerly a senior Pentagon official who is now a consultant for businesses in China and other countries. "For very good reasons we go ahead with plans that cause other people for very good reasons to do things, and there you have it."

DEPLOYMENT OF TMD IN ASIA WOULD DRIVE CHINA INTO LASHING OUT

Gary Klintworth The Straits Times (Singapore) March 19, 1999 SECTION: Commentary Analysis; Pg. 51 HEADLINE: Missile system will provoke China // lnu-acs

    FOR China, a TMD or Theatre Missile Defence system covering North-east Asia is like a red rag to a bull. If it works, it will remove China's ace in hand for dealing with Taiwan.

CHINA WILL RESPOND TO ASIAN TMD BY DEVELOPING MIRVS

Gary Klintworth The Straits Times (Singapore) March 19, 1999 SECTION: Commentary Analysis; Pg. 51 HEADLINE: Missile system will provoke China // lnu-acs

For every defence, there is a counter. If the TMD system is eventually deployed in North-east Asia, China could seek to counter its effectiveness, for example, by fitting missiles with decoys, increasing the number of warheads through MIRVs (manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles) that can zig-zag to avoid interception.

MISSILE DEFENSE TESTING THREATENS ASIAN STABILITY

Eric Watkins, international relations analyst based in London, The San Diego Union-Tribune, October 21, 1999, SECTION: NEWS Pg. A-37 HEADLINE: Russians say U.S. anti-ballistic centerpiece undermines ABM treaty // ln-10-29-99-acs

"Testing may aggravate relations not only between the U.S. and (Asia- Pacific region) countries, but also between Japan -- a U.S. ally in the development of the ABM system -- and other countries," Vladimir Petrovsky, a member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, said after the test.

"Russia and China are also against the deployment of the ABM system, as they see it as an attempt by Washington to derail the ABM Treaty signed in 1972."