IMPACTS: NMD LEADS TO A DANGEROUS CHINESE NUCLEAR BUILD UP

NMD PROGRAM WILL MEAN A TEN FOLD INCREASE IN CHINESE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND INCREASE ASIAN REGIONAL CRISES

DAVID SHAMBAUGH, Director of the China Policy Program and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University January, 2001 / February, 2001 Foreign Affairs HEADLINE: Facing Reality in China Policy SECTION: CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT; Pg. 50 //VT2002acsln

Although NMD has yet to prove technically feasible, China has warned it will increase its nuclear arsenal NMD PROGRAM WILL MEAN A TEN FOLD INCREASE IN CHINESE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND INCREASE ASIAN REGIONAL CRISESDAVID SHAMBAUGH, Director of the China Policy Program and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University January, 2001 / February, 2001 Foreign Affairs HEADLINE: Facing Reality in China Policy SECTION: CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT; Pg. 50 //VT2002acsln Although NMD has yet to prove technically feasible, China has warned it will increase its nuclear arsenal issue for Beijing that could also provoke a crisis or stimulate regional missile proliferation. issue for Beijing that could also provoke a crisis or stimulate regional missile proliferation.irst.

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE LEADS TO A NEW NUCLEAR MISSILE RACE WITH CHINA WITH THE THREAT OF GLOBAL DESTRUCTION

Elizabeth Sullivan The Plain Dealer June 14, 1999 SECTION: EDITORIALS & FORUM; Pg. 9B HEADLINE: MISSILE DEFENSE; FLAWED IN; EVERY RESPECT // lnu-acs

The tried-and-true approach with Moscow has been deterrence. They won't blow us up if we can annihilate them back.

To do national missile defense right requires jettisoning deterrence, along with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the Soviet Union.

But that will almost certainly bring on another nuclear missile race, this time with China. How many of us really want to go back to the days of tense standoffs over tiny islands (Taiwan instead of Cuba) and the grim nightmare of nuclear annihilation hanging over it all?

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE CREATES A NEW ARMS RACE AS NATIONS TRY TO GET ENOUGH MISSILE TO OVERWHELM THE USA NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM -- CHINA IS ONE

Steven Mufson, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington Post September 5, 1999SECTION: A SECTION; Pg. A06 HEADLINE: Korean Missiles Push U.S. Defense Plans; Some Fear Buildup Could Hurt Stability // lnu-acs

But some foreign policy experts warn that American missile defense systems could make Asia and the United States less rather than more secure by stimulating an arms race among countries eager to overwhelm the capabilities of those systems.

Although U.S. missile defense systems are still in the experimental stage, they have already had a major impact on policymakers in Beijing. The proposals for a national missile defense system have contributed to China's reexamination of its own relatively small nuclear arsenal, which might no longer provide adequate deterrence against the United States.

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE WILL LEAD THE CHINESE TO ABROGATE THE CTBT AS THEY INCREASE THEIR NUCLEAR TESTING AND ARSENAL

Jonathan S. Landay , The Christian Science Monitor, September 17, 1999, Pg. 2 HEADLINE: Missile issues put chill on US-China thaw // ln-10/99-acs

"My fear is that it [the NMD plan] will drive the Chinese to accelerate their already robust missile modernization program," Dr. Mulvenon says. "My fear is that they will spend a lot more money than they would have and could take an extreme step of abrogating their accession to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in order to test to develop new warheads."

EVEN AN INEFFECTIVE MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM WILL SPUR A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE WITH CHINA

The Straits Times (Singapore), October 25, 1999 SECTION: Commentary Analysis; Pg. 40 HEADLINE: Starting a nuclear race? // ln-acs-11-11-99

As yet, it is not even clear if the shield will work. Only three of the 17 interceptor tests the US has conducted since 1983 have hit their targets. In at least one instance, the test was rigged. Nobody, not even the most enthusiastic advocates of missile defence, claims the shield can be foolproof. American officials assert it can be effective against a limited missile attack involving tens of missiles, but critics argue that it can be defeated by the simplest of counter-measures. Russia and China, however, will have no choice but to react as though the shield will work. Since neither can compete with the US on missile defence technology, they will have to pursue the only other option available to them, which is to increase their offensive capacity. China, in particular, will be forced to take this road, since it must assume that the mere tens of missiles it will have by 2015 capable of reaching North America will be neutralised by the shield.

ABROGATION OF THE ABM TREATY BRINGS ULTRA-NATIONALISTS TO POWER IN RUSSIA AND CAUSES A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE WITH CHINA

JONATHAN F. REICHERT, Ph.D., is president of TeachSpin Inc., The Buffalo News

May 2, 1999, SECTION: VIEWPOINTS, Pg. 1H HEADLINE: STAR WARS REVISITED;

U.S. STILL PURSUING A TECHNOLOGICAL MIRACLE TO PROTECT IT FROM;

HARM.THERE'S JUST ONE PROBLEM -- IT WON'T WORK // lnu-acs

If it were only a waste of money, it wouldn't be so terrible. But the program also has important political costs. It will abrogate the ABM treaty, which has been extremely important in preventing another arms race. It will kill the ratification of SALT II, which was the most important step in a major nuclear arms reduction in the old Soviet Union.

The Russian Duma will not ratify SALT II with this new arms race. In the process, it will encourage the ultra-nationalists in Russia who are already getting political power. It will encourage China to increase nuclear weapons and missile production.