IMPACTS: ABM TREATY CANNOT BE RENEGOTIATED

RUSSIA WILL NEVER RENEGOTIATE THE ABM TREATY

Andrew Koch, Jane's Defence Weekly, October 20, 1999 HEADLINE: NON-PROLIFERATION - on the way out? // ln-10-29-99-acs

Some independent experts are not convinced that a Russian government will ever agree to modify the ABM. Nikolai Sokov of the Monterey Institute said "I don't see a deal that is feasible [on the ABM] no matter what the US says."

UPDATING OR CHANGING THE ABM TREATY IS NOT POSSIBLE

Ambassador Yury Nazarkin, Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Systems Analysis; Vitaly Tsygichko, professor, member of the Russian Academy of Natural, Sevodnya, Nov. 18, 1999, p. 4. Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press December 22, 1999 SECTION: Vol. 51, No. 47; Pg. 10 HEADLINE: Do US ABM Plans Spell Death of Arms Control? // acs-ln-1/1/00

The ABM Treaty remains the cornerstone of strategic stability, and most Russian analysts continue to regard any updating of the accord as inadmissible. And yet the enormous changes that have taken place in the world in recent years call for a rethinking of certain precepts of the existing concept of strategic stability, with the aim of bringing them in line with the new international realities. . . .

NEEDED AMENDMENTS TO THE ABM TREATY ARE NOT MINOR, BUT WOULD HAVE TO BE MAJOR

James T. Hackett Insight on the News July 26, 1999, SECTION: FAIR COMMENT; Pg. 28

HEADLINE: Extension of ABM Treaty Will Hurt Missile Defense // lnu-acs

It is hard to see how a treaty designed to prevent a nationwide missile defense can be amended to allow one. At a minimum, Article I, which prohibits a nationwide defense, must be removed; Article III, which limits the number and location of sites, interceptors and radars, must be amended extensively; Article V, which bans sea-based, air-based and space-based defenses, must be eliminated if more effective defenses are to be added in the future; and Article VI, which hinders the use of lasers and other advanced technologies, must be modified. Changes in various Agreed Statements and Common Understandings also are needed. Anything less will be just cosmetic changes that leave the country with inadequate defenses.

RUSSIA WILL NOT NEGOTIATE ANY CHANGES IN THE ABM TREATY

MICHAEL R. GORDON, The New York Times, October 21, 1999, SECTION: Section A; Page 3; Column 1; HEADLINE: Russians Firmly Reject U.S. Plan to Reopen ABM Treaty // ln-10-29-99-acs

A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Vladimir Rakhmanin, said Russia was not interested in bargaining over the treaty. "We aren't negotiating any kind of amendments to the ABM," Mr. Rakhmanin said.

RUSSIA WILL NOT COMPROMISE ON THE ABM TREATY

MICHAEL R. GORDON, The New York Times, October 21, 1999, SECTION: Section A; Page 3; Column 1; HEADLINE: Russians Firmly Reject U.S. Plan to Reopen ABM Treaty // ln-10-29-99-acs

But Russian officials said that they were simply being blunt and that Washington had understated the political and military risks of its plan to its public and its allies.

"There can be no compromise on this issue," the first deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, Col. Gen. Valery Manilov, told reporters today.

RUSSIANS WILL NOT RENEGOTIATE THE ABM TREATY FOR A SMALL MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE THIN SYSTEM WILL GO THICK

Eric Watkins, international relations analyst based in London, The San Diego Union-Tribune, October 21, 1999, SECTION: NEWS Pg. A-37 HEADLINE: Russians say U.S. anti-ballistic centerpiece undermines ABM treaty // ln-10-29-99-acs

Indeed, the Kremlin has so far refused to accept changes in the treaty, despite repeated U.S. assurances that the NMD system is intended to protect the United States from attack by rogue nations.

The Russians believe U.S. economic strength makes it possible gradually to build up the potential of the missile defense system that is now being tested, saying the U.S. military-industrial complex won't know where to stop.

RUSSIA WILL STAND FIRM IN OPPOSING ABM TREATY RENEGOTIATIONS

The Columbus Dispatch, October 20, 1999, SECTION: EDITORIAL & COMMENT, Pg. 10A, HEADLINE: COURTING THE KREMLIN U.S. MUST INSIST ON MISSILE-SHIELD ACCORD // ln-10-29-99-acs

St. Petersburg Times, October 20, 1999, SECTION: NATIONAL; Pg. 15A HEADLINE: Russia rejects trade-off on missiles // ln-10-29-99-acs

"I have a very strong impression that the Russian military, and the Foreign Ministry as well, have taken this issue to heart, and they are determined to stand firm on ABM no matter what," said Paul Podvig, a researcher at the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies in Moscow. "The United States should understand what the situation is. There should be a clear understanding Russia is not at all happy with all this talk about changing the ABM treaty, and some in Russia seem to be willing to go as far as to pull out of the START I treaty."

RUSSIANS WANT ABM TREATY STRENGTHENED, NOT WEAKENED

The Russians repeated their objections on Oct. 5, commenting on the U.S. test and its implications for the ABM Treaty.

"Such actions by the U.S. side effectively lead to the undermining of key provisions in the treaty," said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin.

"Russia doggedly insists on the preservation and increased effectiveness of the ABM Treaty as the most important element for securing strategic stability in the world and for continuing the process of nuclear disarmament," Rakhmanin said, reinforcing the Kremlin's line.

REPUBLICANS WILL NOT APPROVE OF THE CHANGES IN THE ABM TREATY WHICH WILL BE NEGOTIATED

Andrew Koch, Jane's Defence Weekly, October 20, 1999 HEADLINE: NON-PROLIFERATION - on the way out? // ln-10-29-99-acs

Any amendments to the ABM treaty would have to be approved by the US Senate, and the chances the Republican-controlled body would agree to anything but full NMD deployment are unlikely. According to Republican Congressional sources, a two-site NMD system with space-based warning sensors and increased radar, would have to be deployed, at a minimum; precisely the infrastructure for the later "breakout" Russia fears.