FEASIBILITY: TEST RESULTS ARE FIXED OR SHOW NMD FAILURE

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM HAS A HISTORY OF EXAGGERATED CLAIMS

MICHAEL A. DORNHEIM Aviation Week and Space Technology August 16, 1999 ; Pg. 66

HEADLINE: National Missile Defense Focused on June Review // lnu-acs

THERE IS A HISTORY OF exaggerated claims in the ballistic missile defense world. The Army claimed success for the Patriot against Scuds in Desert Storm, but this was challenged by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Defense and Arms Control Studies Program, based on their own analysis. Subsequent studies concluded that MIT was right, but Raytheon offered a rebuttal (http://www.gbhap-us.com/journals/709/ patriot/). With the important details of NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE testing classified, where is the independent evaluation?

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT STORY OF FAILURES AND LIES

JONATHAN F. REICHERT, Ph.D., is president of TeachSpin Inc., The Buffalo News

May 2, 1999, SECTION: VIEWPOINTS, Pg. 1H HEADLINE: STAR WARS REVISITED;

U.S. STILL PURSUING A TECHNOLOGICAL MIRACLE TO PROTECT IT FROM;

HARM.THERE'S JUST ONE PROBLEM -- IT WON'T WORK // lnu-acs

We have already spent some $ 55 billion to $ 60 billion on this foolish idea. What do we have to show for it? Not a single piece of military hardware, not a single system that works. We have spent billions on systems that were known to be useless or easily defeated by simple counter measures. We have been lied to by Teller about the X-ray laser. We have been given phony, rigged, so-called tests of antimissile systems. But now, under political pressure for a quick fix, it is starting again.

RECENT NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE TESTS WHICH WERE HAILED BY PROPONENTS AS SUCCESSES ACTUALLY WERE QUITE DISAPPOINTING

PAUL RICHTER, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times August 24, 1999, SECTION: Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: MISSILE-DEFENSE TESTS 'SCRIPTED,' OFFICIAL SAYS // lnu-acs

      A top Pentagon official is casting new doubt on the progress of the government's leading missile-defense technology, saying two recent test-flight successes haven't established how well the controversial system could handle an actual attack.

The test flights, carried out after six consecutive failures, have been hailed by advocates as evidence that the Army's $ 15.4-billion Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system will be able to protect troops on the battlefield from missile attacks.

But Philip E. Coyle III, director of operational test and evaluation for the Pentagon, said the tests were "highly scripted," and not as challenging as the conditions that THAAD would need to handle to actually knock an incoming missile out of the sky. He said more realistic tests should be conducted before the project moves from the prototype-development stage to engineering of the final system.

In his job, Coyle serves as a sort of quality-control official for the Pentagon. Although his assessment alone is unlikely to derail or delay the program, it provides new ammunition for THAAD's critics, who have raised similar concerns in the past.

"WATERSHED" NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE TESTS WERE ACTUALLY FIXED TO SUCCEED

PAUL RICHTER, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times August 24, 1999, SECTION: Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: MISSILE-DEFENSE TESTS 'SCRIPTED,' OFFICIAL SAYS // lnu-acs

The test flights, which took place in June and earlier this month, led Pentagon officials to accelerate the schedule of the program, an offshoot of former President Reagan's controversial "Star Wars" initiative.

Last week, one official hailed the tests as "a watershed in the technological history of the United States," and the Pentagon announced it would skip further prototype testing and move quickly toward final development of the project.

Coyle, however, said the two flight tests, carried out at the Army's White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico, differed from the conditions of a real attack in key respects.

Because of the relatively small size of the White Sands test area, the Army was required to use a target missile that flew a shorter path, and was thus easier for the missile-defense system to locate.

In addition, the flight test was "shaped and scripted" so the collision would occur in a relatively small area of the sky, so that debris would not fall in areas where it might do damage, he said. And he pointed out that the THAAD missile was a prototype that would not ultimately be used in the system.

PROTOTYPE TEST FAILURES DOCUMENTED BY THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT PROVE THAT NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE CRITICS ARE RIGHT

PAUL RICHTER, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times August 24, 1999, SECTION: Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: MISSILE-DEFENSE TESTS 'SCRIPTED,' OFFICIAL SAYS // lnu-acs

Coyle's views in some ways echo the comments of missile-defense system critics. They have argued that the prototype tests don't replicate the difficult conditions of an actual attack, and have urged more challenging tests.

"He's saying things we've been saying for a long time," said Luke Warren of the Council for a Livable World, an arms-control advocacy group in Washington. If the tests "aren't exactly rigged, they are set up not to fail."

ACCURACY IN NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE TESTS HAS BEEN PATHETIC

DERRICK Z. JACKSON The Boston Globe March 26, 1999, SECTION: OP-ED; Pg. A23 HEADLINE: Star Wars politics // lnu-acs

Depending on who you believe, the military has hit a grand total of two targets in 15 tries or four targets in 18 tries since "Star Wars" was conceived by President Reagan in 1983. Put another way, this means that this program, which has cost taxpayers between $55 billion and $68 billion, is still likely to miss eight or nine times out of every 10 attacks.

IF NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE FAILS, INCENTIVES WILL INCREASE FOR PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKES AND MANY NEW REGIONAL CONFLICTS

David Montgomery, The Scotsman October 5, 1999, Pg. 22 HEADLINE: ANTI-MISSILE TEST RAISES FEARS FOR STABILITY // ln-acs

If the technology designed for the prototype - a key part of the national missile defence (NMD) programme - works, the threat posed by missile attacks will be greatly diminished.

However, if the missile fails, the advocates of pre-emptive strikes - attacking an "enemy's" launch sites before it can fire any missiles - will have gained considerable ground.

Military experts say this could be a short cut to regional conflict.