FEASIBILITY: NMD IS MANY YEARS AWAY

NMD IS A LONG, LONG WAY AWAY

Greg Torode, January 28, 2001 South China Morning Post SECTION: Pg. 9 HEADLINE: Towards a new Cold War //VT2002acsln

It could be two decades before anything secure enough to challenge the old assumptions of mutual nuclear deterrence could be completed and even then it may be far from omnipotent.

"There is some pretty glib talk flying around," one Republican congressional staffer said. "Suddenly, Bush is in power, and people are talking as if we just flick a switch and turn on the missile-defence system. Well, it ain't quite like that."

NO NMD UNTIL 2006 AT THE EARLIEST

Greg Torode, January 28, 2001 South China Morning Post SECTION: Pg. 9 HEADLINE: Towards a new Cold War //VT2002acsln

Mr Bush could decide as early as March whether to push ahead with the building of a giant radar in the Aleutian Islands, which run west from Alaska, as a vital first step. If he pushes ahead, this most limited National Missile Defence shield would not be in place until 2006 at the earliest.

18 YEARS UNTIL LASERS CAN BE PART OF NMD

Greg Torode, January 28, 2001 South China Morning Post SECTION: Pg. 9 HEADLINE: Towards a new Cold War //VT2002acsln

Star Wars lasers, openly mocked by Soviet scientists during the Cold War, remain at the most basic of conceptual stages.

Given the extreme logistics, it would not be until 2008 at the earliest before they could be fully tested and a further 10 years before they could be fully deployed, analysts believe.