FEASIBILITY: EVERYONE WHO WANTS THEM WILL GET COUNTERMEASURES AND DECOYS

SO-CALLED "ROGUE" STATES WILL USE COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE

BOB DROGIN, TIMES STAFF WRITER, Los Angeles Times September 10, 1999, SECTION: Part A; Page 1; HEADLINE: MISSILE THREAT TO U.S. 'SERIOUS,' REPORT WARNS // lnu-acs

The unexpectedly dire assessment by the National Intelligence Council also warns for the first time that "rogue" nations developing ballistic missiles will seek to build systems to jam, evade or overwhelm potential U.S. antimissile defense systems. It adds that Russia and China "probably" will sell their own countermeasure technology to other countries.

SO-CALLED "ROGUE" STATES ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING COUNTERMEASURES TO MISSILE DEFENSES

Greg Seigle, JDW Staff Reporter, Jane's Defence Weekly, September 15, 1999 HEADLINE: CIA warns on 'rogue' nations' missiles moves // ln-10/99-acs

The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) believes that 'rogue' nations developing ballistic missiles are also simultaneously devising counter-measures to make their missiles more dangerous. North Korea, Iran, Iraq and other 'rogue' nations could test intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) "in the next few years", and their scientists are likely to be adding effective decoys that make the missiles harder to intercept, according to top CIA officials.

NORTH KOREA, IRAN, AND IRAQ ARE DEVELOPING MISSILE DEFENSE COUNTERMEASURES IN THEIR OWN MISSILE PROGRAMS

Greg Seigle, JDW Staff Reporter, Jane's Defence Weekly, September 15, 1999 HEADLINE: CIA warns on 'rogue' nations' missiles moves // ln-10/99-acs

The contention by the CIA that Pyongyang, Tehran and Baghdad are on track to develop ICBMs "in the last half of the next decade", if not "in a few years", differs greatly from the last NIE in 1995. That report concluded: "No country, other than the declared nuclear powers, will develop or otherwise acquire ballistic missiles in the next 15 years that could threaten the contiguous 48 states or Canada." According to the new estimate, the CIA believes that states hostile to the USA are including counter-measures in their ICBMs, and possibly even intermediate- and short-range ballistic missiles, to thwart ongoing efforts by the USA to develop effective NMD and theatre missile defences.

RUSSIA AND CHINA WOULD BE GLAD TO SELL MISSILE DEFENSE COUNTERMEASURES TO NATIONS WHICH WANT THEM

Greg Seigle, JDW Staff Reporter, Jane's Defence Weekly, September 15, 1999 HEADLINE: CIA warns on 'rogue' nations' missiles moves // ln-10/99-acs

"Russia and China each have developed numerous counter-measures and probably are willing to sell the requisite technologies," the new NEI report says. "Many countries, such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq probably would rely initially on readily-available technology." Reliable counter-measures on ICBMs could range from simple balloon decoys to sophisticated multiple warhead rocket vehicles (RVs). They could also include spin-stabilised RVs, RV reorientation, radar absorbing material, low-power jammers and chaff. Another concern is booster fragmentation, because mediocre ICBMs could easily break up in flight, much like Iraqi Scuds did during the 1990-91 Gulf War, making them much harder for air defences to intercept.

RUSSIA IS ALREADY TESTING COUNTERMEASURES AND RESPONSES TO USA MISSILE DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT

The Gazette (Montreal), November 04, 1999, SECTION: News; B13 HEADLINE: Russia tests missile // ln-acs-11-11-99

Russia has tested a short-range interceptor missile for the Moscow anti-ballistic missile system in what appeared to be a symbolic warning to the United States not to go ahead with a national missile defence system now under consideration.

Col.-Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, commander of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, told Interfax news agency that the Tuesday launch at the Sary-Shagan testing ground in Kazakhstan was the first of its kind since 1993.

Russia has been warning in recent weeks that if the United States goes ahead with a national missile defence system, then Russia will take countermeasures, and yestersday's announcement seemed to be a bit of muscle flexing.

SO-CALLED "ROGUE" STATES WILL DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES TO MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM

Janadas Devan The Straits Times (Singapore), October 31, 1999, SECTION: Review Focus shield"; Pg. 41 HEADLINE: So many possible holes // ln-acs-11-11-99

According to the 1999 US Intelligence Estimate, countries like North Korea and Iran which are developing ballistic missiles, "would also develop various responses to US theatre and national defences".

Russia and China each have developed numerous countermeasures and probably are willing to sell the requisite technologies.

According to the US Air Force's National Air Intelligence Centre, the warhead in China's new long-range missile, the DF-31, already carries multiple decoys and other "penetration aids" like chaff, designed to defeat precisely the kind of missile defences that the US is developing.

ANY COUNTRY WITH ICBMS CAN ALSO MAKE COUNTERMEASURES

MICHAEL A. DORNHEIM Aviation Week and Space Technology August 16, 1999 ; Pg. 66

HEADLINE: National Missile Defense Focused on June Review // lnu-acs

COUNTERMEASURES REMAIN a topic of debate. Some members of the Rumsfeld Commission, which sounded the alarm last year about the rapid pace of rogue nation missile development, said any country capable of building an ICBM could also make countermeasures that would defeat an NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE system (AW&ST Oct. 12, 1998, p. 21). One suggestion is to surround a warhead with a balloon filled with cold gas, making it look like other decoys and hard to see in the infrared.