ANSWERS: RUSSIA HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO ACCEPT ABM TREATY RENEGOTIATION

RUSSIA WILL GO ALONG WITH ABM TREATY MODIFICATIONS BECAUSE IT CAN'T AFFORD TO DO ANY DIFFERENT

The Economist, January 29, 2000 , HEADLINE: Countdown //ACS-LN-2/4/2000

Will Russia strike a deal? Talks continued this week but have not yet got very far. For America simply to tear up the ABM treaty would destroy hopes for further cuts in Russia's nuclear arsenal. Russia has also said it would consider itself free to abandon previous arms agreements. But Russia faces a difficulty, too. It lacks the funds to maintain the weapons it has, and may itself face similar missile threats from unpredictable states. Going along with some modifications to the ABM treaty would enable it to keep a negotiated cap on defences, while no doubt winning some technical help and new limits on strategic weapons that it would find more comfortable to live with.

BECAUSE RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS WILL HAVE ZERO EFFECTIVENESS BY 2007, RUSSIA WILL RENEGOTIATE THE ABM TREATY

Jane's Defence Weekly, October 20, 1999 HEADLINE: NON-PROLIFERATION - on the way out? // ln-10-29-99-acs

The Clinton Administration is investigating a number of enticements and options to mitigate these Russian concerns. The USA has assumed that Russia desperately needs to reduce its nuclear arsenal for financial reasons and could be willing to make a deal. Gen Antoly Sitnov, the Russian military's head of procurement, seemed to support this view in a recent announcement when he said that Russia had eight years to replace its entire nuclear arsenal before it became obsolete. "The resources of Russia's nuclear weapons are strictly limited and run out in 2007," Sitnov said, adding "by then, we will need a full replacement of ground and naval components of the strategic nuclear forces". Therefore, the administration believes, Moscow could be willing to negotiate changes to the ABM treaty in exchange for locking-in US nuclear forces at lower but equivalent levels to Russia under START III. Without such an agreement, Moscow could be facing overwhelming US nuclear superiority as early as the next decade.

RUSSIA KNOWS THEY MUST COOPERATE WITH ABM TREATY RENEGOTIATION NOW OR ELSE THE CONGRESS WILL EVENTUALLY ABROGATE THE TREATY

EDITORIAL, The Christian Science Monitor September 17, 1999, Pg. 10 HEADLINE: Arms Control: Still a Must // ln-10/99-acs

Above all, Washington wants changes in the ABM agreement. The Russians have been stubborn on this, arguing that weakening the current treaty would undermine strategic parity between the countries. They have a point, but they face a reality: Given the momentum in Congress, the US is likely to build missile defenses with or without Moscow's consent.

RUSSIANS KNOW USA WILL INEVITABLY DEPLOY MISSILE DEFENSE, SO THEY KNOW THEY WOULD PREFER TO NEGOTIATE CHANGES INSTEAD OF FACING OUTRIGHT ABROGATION

Sam Nunn, a former US senator from Georgia. Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser to presidents. Arnold Kanter is a senior fellow at The Forum for International Policy; The Boston Globe, September 13, 1999, Pg. A13 HEADLINE: A deal with Russia on arms control? // ln-10/99-acs

- Second, although they are loath to admit it, the Russians increasingly realize that the United States is going to deploy missile defenses in some form. If they have to choose, they surely would prefer reaching agreement on new limits that protect their interests, rather than have to live in a world in which US missile defenses are unconstrained.

RUSSIANS KNOW THEY MUST RENEGOTIATE THE ABM TREATY OR ELSE THE USA WILL MOVE EVENTUALLY TO AN UNLIMITED MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM

The Russians may well have a great deal of difficulty in accepting these kinds of changes because, depending on the details, they could significantly enhance our breakout potential: i.e., our ability to rapidly expand our missile defenses beyond the agreed numerical limits. The calculation they would have to make, however, is whether or not an amended ABM treaty along these lines would be better than what is likely to be their only other alternative - no missile defense limits at all.

RUSSIA WILL RENEGOTIATE, BECAUSE IF RUSSIA WON'T RENEGOTIATE THE ABM TREATY, HARD-LINERS WILL FORCE THE USA TO GO FORWARD ANYWAY, AND THE RUSSIANS KNOW THAT

John Donnelly, Globe Staff, The Boston Globe, October 19, 1999, SECTION: NATIONAL/FOREIGN; Pg. A1 HEADLINE: Arms control specialists see risk in US treaty moves // ln-10-29-99-acs

A US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said there is a "pretty active front" among US and Russian officials talking about reopening the ABM treaty terms. But he said if Russians ultimately reject any missile defense system, a confrontation is likely.

"The reality is if they don't renegotiate, we have hard-liners in Congress who will want to dump ABM, and we may be going forward without the Russians."

MISSILE DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT WILL NOT LEAD TO A NEW ARMS RACE WITH RUSSIA -- THEY CAN'T AFFORD IT

The Columbus Dispatch, October 20, 1999, SECTION: EDITORIAL & COMMENT, Pg. 10A, HEADLINE: COURTING THE KREMLIN U.S. MUST INSIST ON MISSILE-SHIELD ACCORD // ln-10-29-99-acs

The Russians have previously rejected renegotiation of the ABM treaty and have warned that by building a missile shield, the United States would trigger another Cold War-style arms race. Not too much credence should be placed in such thinking. Russia is barely able to maintain its present military machinery, much less launch major weapons-development programs.

Russian worries and strategic interests should be recognized and treated with respect, but they should not trump U.S. national-security interests.

RUSSIA WILL HAVE TO GIVE IN TO USA PRESSURE ON MISSILE DEFENSE BECAUSE RUSSIA IS NOT POWERFUL ENOUGH TO CHANGE USA POLICIES

The Columbus Dispatch, October 20, 1999, SECTION: EDITORIAL & COMMENT, Pg. 10A, HEADLINE: COURTING THE KREMLIN U.S. MUST INSIST ON MISSILE-SHIELD ACCORD // ln-10-29-99-acs

U.S. negotiators must remember that while today's Kremlin can still bristle and bluster in true Soviet style, Soviet muscle is gone. Russia is an ex-superpower, and as galling as it may be to Russian pride, Moscow needs the United States far more than the United States needs Moscow.

WITH NMD IN THE WORKS, RUSSIA HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO NEGOTOIATE

Ambassador Yury Nazarkin, Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Systems Analysis; Vitaly Tsygichko, professor, member of the Russian Academy of Natural, Sevodnya, Nov. 18, 1999, p. 4. Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press December 22, 1999 SECTION: Vol. 51, No. 47; Pg. 10 HEADLINE: Do US ABM Plans Spell Death of Arms Control? // acs-ln-1/1/00

WITH U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE INEVITABLE, EXPERTS SAY RUSSIA MUST NEGOTIATE ABM TREATY CHANGES THAT PREVENT SHIELD FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING RUSSIA'S RETALIATORY-STRIKE CAPABILITY

RUSSIA MUST RENEGOTIATE THE ABM TREATY AND KNOWS IT

If we were to block any possible revision of the ABM Treaty, we might succeed only in hastening a US decision to withdraw from that treaty. Essentially, Russia has been issued an ultimatum. Is that humiliating? Of course. But rather than giving vent to our bruised feelings, let's try instead to weigh the various responses at our disposal.