ANSWERS: ABM TREATY WILL BE RENEGOTIATED WHEN USA OFFERS RUSSIA DEEP NUCLEAR CUTS
IF OFFERED DEEP CUTS IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS, THE RUSSIANS WILL RENEGOTIATE THE ABM TREATY
PETER MALONE, managing director of CSP Associates, a strategy consulting firm, January 24, 2001, The Boston Globe SECTION: OP-ED; Pg. A15 HEADLINE: MISSILE DEFENSE AND ARMS REDUCTION //VT2002acsln
In this environment, an abrupt unilateral denunciation of the ABM treaty would be unwise and, perhaps, unnecessary. Given Bush's clear determination to pursue missile defense, the Russians might well agree to replace the ABM treaty with a new arms control regime that sets an overall limit on both offensive and defensive interceptors as well as sub-limits on the nuclear weapons themselves. Each side could then vary its mix of offensive and defensive payloads as it sees fit.
If the Russians lacked the desire or the resources to deploy defenses, they would nonetheless retain strategic equality with the United States while reducing the economic and safety burdens associated with unneeded and aging nuclear forces. So long as the ceilings were equal (or even roughly equivalent), neither side would enjoy either a pre-emptive strike capability or a high confidence defense against the other. This assures continued strategic stability.
OFFERING DEEP NUCLEAR CUTS CAN GET RUSSIA TO GO ALONG WITH NMD
JAMES RUBIN, US assistant secretary of state between 1997-2000, now lecturing at the London School of Economics, February 6, 2001, Financial Times (London) SECTION: COMMENT & ANALYSIS;Pg. 23 HEADLINE: COMMENT & ANALYSIS: A deal on missile defence: George Bush can build a consensus that protects the world against weapons of mass destruction, says James Rubin: //VT2002acsln
Over the past two years, there have been strong indications that Moscow would accept such a bargain - especially as sea-based NMD would not be able to strike Russian missiles deployed well inland (the same applies for China). Moscow's real fear is that it will be unable to maintain parity with the US unless much lower levels are agreed on the offensive side. With a dramatic offer of deep cuts, Mr Bush can change Moscow's thinking and show that NMD is compatible with arms control.
NMD WILL NOT CAUSE RUSSIA TO MAINTAIN A LARGER NUCLEAR ARSENAL
BAKER SPRING, Research Fellow The Heritage Foundation, July 13, 2000 MYTHS ABOUT MISSILE DEFENSE AND THE ARMS RACE No. 1385
http://www.heritage.org/library/backgrounder/bg1385.html //VT2002acslnMyth #2: Deploying a U.S. national missile defense system will cause Russia to maintain a larger strategic nuclear arsenal than it otherwise would.
Reality: Current economic circumstances will force Russia to reduce its strategic nuclear arsenal even without arms control considerations.
The argument in favor of an offensive buildup of Russian strategic forces ignores the fact that the Cold War is over and that Russia is not likely to seek a Soviet-style confrontation with the United States. It also ignores the possibility that Russia could mimic the Soviet Union's response after the ABM Treaty was signed and seek a first-strike capability. The reality, however, is that Russia does not have the financial resources to pursue an arms race against the United States; in 1997, its gross domestic product (GDP) was only an estimated $644 billion, compared with America's GDP of $7 trillion.
RUSSIANS WILL AGREE TO AMEND THE ABM TREATY, BUT WILL DEMAND DEEP NUCLEAR CUTS BY BOTH SIDES IN EXCHANGE
Lawrence Freedman is professor of war studies at King's College London, The Independent (London) August 22, 1999, SECTION: COMMENT; Pg. 24 HEADLINE: WHY AMERICA SAYS IT NOW NEEDS 'SON OF STAR WARS'; THE WEST NO LONGER REQUIRES A NUCLEAR CAPABILITY, BUT IT FEARS THAT OTHERS STILL DO. // lnu-acs
Moscow may agree to some amendment of the 1972 treaty, but it will sell its concessions hard. It wants parity with America in numbers of warheads, but this can be achieved only if the Americans agree to make substantial cuts: as things stand, their lack of resources may reduce the Russians' arsenal to a thousand warheads.