IMPACT: NMD WILL PROMOTE SOUTH ASIA STABILITY THROUGH COOPERATION WITH INDIA

INDIA CAN PROMOTE PEACE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION THROUGH COOPERATION WITH THE USA ON MISSILE DEFENSE

JK DUTT, retired Lieutenant-Colonel, Indian Army, March 28, 2001 THE STATESMAN (INDIA) HEADLINE: Imponderables of a nuclear race //VT2002acsln

There is no gainsaying the fallout of this insalubrious clime on the Indian sub-continent. US Secretary of State Colin Powell during his address to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said India had the potential to ensure peace in the Indian Ocean. Capitalising on this lead, India needs to do two things. First, it should initiate an Indian Ocean Treaty comprising all the littorals of the region for the management of this increasingly important geo-strategic waterway.

And second, it should negotiate with the USA for securing NMD coverage for this treaty.

BUSH ADMINISTRATION HAS THE RIGHT NUCLEAR AGENDA FOR INDIAL DECREASE NUMBERS, USE DEFENSE, NO CTBT

THE HINDU March 14, 2001 HEADLINE: The Hindu-Editorial: Indo-U.S. dialogue on NMD? //VT2002acsln

But what makes the next phase of Indo-U.S. nuclear dialogue an exciting one is the promise of the President, Mr. George W. Bush, to depart radically from the nuclear agenda of the Clinton Administration. The Bush national security team has come to Washington with a set of nuclear assumptions that are very different from those which informed the world view of Mr. Bill Clinton. First is a strong commitment to build defences against ballistic missiles. In the last couple of months, the Bush Administration has proclaimed its determination to go ahead with the plans despite political opposition in Europe, Russia and China. Mr. Bush has signalled that he is ready to proceed unilaterally if necessary and in violation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972 that restricts the development and deployment of defences.

Second, the Bush Administration is also debating the possibility of negotiating deep reductions in offensive nuclear forces with Russia. There are some suggestions in the U.S. media that the Bush Administration might even be prepared for unilateral reductions in its nuclear arsenal. Third, the Bush team rejects the CTBT as a fatally flawed arrangement. Underlying that view is the assumption that some proliferation of nuclear weapons is inevitable, and treaties like the CTBT are incapable of preventing backlash states from acquiring nuclear weapons.

REALIZATION THAT NUCLEAR OFFENSE IS BAD AND DEFENSE IS GOOD CREATES A NEW BASIS FOR USA-INDIA RELATIONSHIP

THE HINDU March 14, 2001 HEADLINE: The Hindu-Editorial: Indo-U.S. dialogue on NMD? //VT2002acsln

Until now, both nuclear deterrence and arms control were premised on the belief that offensive nuclear weapons were "good" and defences against them were "bad". The theology decreed that peace between nuclear adversaries could only by sustained by the certainty of retaliation by offensive nuclear forces. Defences, the mantra said, would complicate deterrence by reducing the effectiveness of nuclear forces. The new emphasis in the U.S. on defences, then, challenges the nuclear mythology of the last five and a half decades. It also implies a basic reconsideration of traditional assumptions of arms control, which is the flip side of nuclear deterrence. A new dialogue focussed on NMD and its impact on arms control should help India and the U.S. transcend the framework of their nuclear dialogue in the last couple of years.

India, on its part, had exercised some restraint in responding to the international debate on the U.S. plans for missile defences. Curbing its traditional temptation to launch into an attack mode, India reacted in a low-key manner to the NMD. India certainly cautioned the U.S. against a unilateral termination of the ABM Treaty and pointed to the dangers of militarisation of outer space. But unlike China, Russia and France, it was unwilling to get into a confrontation with the U.S. on missile defences.

WITH NMD THE NEW USA-INDIA COOPERATION IS THE BEST FORMAT FOR ANTI-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS

THE HINDU March 14, 2001 HEADLINE: The Hindu-Editorial: Indo-U.S. dialogue on NMD? //VT2002acsln

The U.S. Defence Secretary, Mr. Donald Rumsfeld, is also believed to have offered to talk to India on the NMD. This should provide a much wider template for a future Indo-U.S. nuclear dialogue. It would open the door for the two sides to review together where the idea of nuclear deterrence is headed in the new millennium. It should also create new room for thinking about the best possible means to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the prospects for bilateral cooperation in the future.