AFF/ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE: ENEMIES OF THE USA WILL USE EMP ATTACK

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Jack Spencer, Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in The Heritage Foundation. May 26, 2000 No. 1372 AMERICA'S VULNERABILITY TO A DIFFERENT NUCLEAR THREAT: AN ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE http://www.heritage.org/library/backgrounder/bg1372.html

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An EMP damages unprotected electronic equipment within the blast's "line of sight." The size of the area in harm's way (the EMP's "footprint" on the Earth's surface) is determined by the altitude of the explosion. The higher the altitude, the greater the land area affected (see Map 1). A Scud-type ballistic missile launched from a vessel off the U.S. coast and detonated at an altitude of 95 miles would degrade electronic systems across one-fourth of the United States. A Taepo Dong-2 missile launched from North Korea probably could deliver a warhead 300 miles above America--enough to degrade electronic systems throughout the country. Crude weapons with low yields, like those used against Japan in World War II, would have ample power to cripple the United States.

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In the post-Cold War years, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction makes the threat more difficult to assess. More important, the traditional deterrent of retaliation does not apply. No rogue nation has the capacity to fight a general nuclear war with the United States; therefore, it is not likely that an EMP blast would be used as a precursor to full-scale war. And since an EMP blast is not likely to kill anyone directly or to be followed by a nuclear strike that would annihilate U.S. cities, the United States is less likely to retaliate and destroy an entire nation of innocent people as punishment for the decisions of a rogue leader. The motivation for a rogue state to use its limited nuclear arsenal in an EMP strike against the United States is simple: It maximizes the impact of its few warheads while minimizing the risk of retaliation.

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This decrease in risk for rogue leaders could compel them to use EMP to offset overwhelming U.S. conventional power on the battlefield. An EMP blast would debilitate U.S. forces in a hot spot where they might be deployed and throughout a region of strategic interest, such as Northeast Asia or the Middle East. Because the United States has no policy on deterrence for a rogue state's use of high-altitude EMP, and because EMP attacks are less risky for those states, such attacks are far more likely to occur in this era of nuclear proliferation than they were at any time during the Cold War.