AFF/ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE: SCENARIOS FOR AN EMP ATTACK

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Under what circumstances would an EMP attack on the United States be likely to occur? The possible scenarios range from one involving a rogue state's desire to demonstrate its potential ability to strike U.S. territory with a nuclear bomb to one in which such a state wants to give itself an advantage in a regional conflict by crippling U.S. military and allied forces, which are more dependent on advanced electronics and therefore more susceptible to an EMP attack.

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Scenario #2: An enemy explodes a nuclear device over a theater of combat or an area containing allied assets to cripple the United States. North Korea has decided to take South Korea but faces 37,000 U.S. troops stationed there. It explodes a nuclear device over the extreme southern part of the Korean peninsula. The EMP effect covers all of Korea, with the strongest effects occurring below the demilitarized zone. North Korea's military is harmed, but the damage is far less severe than that experienced by U.S. and South Korean forces since they rely on modern electronics to a much greater extent. Because the U.S. and allied forces are unable to utilize their advanced radar, communications, and networked systems, they suffer a major decline in warfighting capabilities. Electronic systems on a carrier battlegroup on its way to the Korean theater are damaged as well. As a result, the United States is seriously constrained in responding to a North Korea attack across the demilitarized zone.

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Scenario #3: A surprise terrorist attack is launched against the United States, but the aggressor cannot be identified. An unknown aggressor launches a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead from a ship located at sea 150 miles east of New York City. The device explodes 80 miles above New York, spreading its effect over most of New York and Pennsylvania. Wall Street shuts down, massive traffic tie-ups occur throughout the metropolitan region, and air traffic control systems are severely degraded. The crew of the ship immediately abandons the vessel and sinks it, and no one admits responsibility. Analysis leads the U.S. government to believe that the missile was probably a Scud variant, but because the United States cannot identify who launched it, there is no basis for retaliation.

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Scenario #4: An enemy uses an EMP blast as part of its war strategy against a U.S. ally. Suppose China commences another military exercise in the Taiwan Strait. As part of the exercise, it launches a ballistic missile in a trajectory over Taiwan. When the missile reaches 300 miles southeast of Taiwan, its nuclear warhead is detonated, releasing an EMP that affects the entire island. The ensuing blackout incites mass confusion and seriously degrades the warfighting ability of the Taiwanese military. Taiwan is unable to defend itself and is forced either to sue for peace with the mainland or to call in the United States to defend it from attack.

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