AFF/ROGUE STATES/IRAQ

IRAQ IS A THREAT TO USE MISSILES TO ATTACK ITS ENEMIES

IRAQ REPRESENTS A MISSILE THREAT

William S. Cohen March 1, 2000, The Times (London) HEADLINE: 'Rogue states cannot hope to blackmail America or her allies' //acs-ln

Before the Gulf War, Iraq had loaded chemical and biological weapons into missile warheads, according to United Nations arms inspectors, and it was close to achieving a nuclear capability. UN sanctions have slowed, but probably not stopped, Baghdad's determination to produce weapons of mass destruction.

IRAQI MISSILE PROGRAMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE DURING SANCTIONS

ROBERT WALL and DAVID A. FULGHUM March 5, 2001 Aviation Week & Space Technology SECTION: WORLD NEWS ANALYSIS; Vol. 154, No. 10; Pg. 41 HEADLINE: Altering Sanctions May Benefit Iraq's Rearming //VT2002acsln

Even with the sanctions in place, Iraq appears to be boosting its ballistic missile program, the CIA told Congress in a report on weapons proliferation. For instance, Iraq appears to be near fielding ''a low-level operational capability'' with its Al-Samoud short-range ballistic missile. The missile has a nominal range of 150 km., which means Iraq is allowed to develop it under U.N. sanctions. But intelligence officials believe its actual range is 180 km., which would put it beyond the 150-km.-range limit.

Furthermore, ''the solid-propellant missile development program may now be receiving a higher priority,'' the CIA said. Among the missiles gaining attention is the short-range Ababil-100, which is seen as compliant with U.N. range limits. However, the CIA said also ''longer-range systems may be moving ahead rapidly.''

IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED AN UNMANNED AIRCRAFT TO DELIVER CBWs

Means of delivery other than missiles continue to gain attention. In past air attacks, most recently in December 1998, the U.S. attacked Iraqi L-29 trainer bases because intelligence revealed that the aircraft were being modified into unmanned aircraft capable of delivering chemical or biological weapons. Now the CIA says ''it is believed Iraq may be conducting flights of the L-29 to test system improvements or to train new pilots.''

IRAQ IS DEVELOPING AN UNMANNED DELIVERY VEHICLE FOR WMD

C4I NEWS March 8, 2001 HEADLINE: Iran Continues To Seek WMD Capability, New Intelligence Report Finds //VT2002acsln

Iraq also has continued working on its L-29 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) program, which involves converting old L-29 jet trainer aircraft originally made by the Czech Republic's Aero Vodochody, it says. "It is believed that Iraq may have been conducting flights of the L-29, possibly to test system improvements or to train new pilots," the report adds. "These refurbished trainer aircraft are believed to have been modified for delivery of chemical or, more likely, biological warfare agents."

IRAQI MISSILE PROGRAMS ARE IMPROVING, WITH 3000 KM RANGE BY 2005

RUDIGER MONIAC JDW Correspondent March 7, 2001 Jane's Defence Weekly SECTION: HEADLINES; Vol. 35; No. 10 HEADLINE: Iraq repairs WMD production sites //VT2002acsln

Iraq has been making progress in its ballistic missile programmes (Jane's Defence Weekly 30 August 2000), the BND said, adding that Baghdad has fabricated its own ammonium perchlorate, a key ingredient in the production of solid missile fuel. Iraq obtained the technology for the Al-Mamoun plant through a front company in India and by shipping it via Malaysia and Dubai, the BND explained. The Indian company is on the German Ministry of Economics' list of prohibited businesses due to suspected involvement in weapons proliferation. Based on these trends, the BND said that Iraq could develop an operational 3,000km-range missile as early as 2005. Again, the CIA report suggests agreement, noting that Iraq's "solid-propellant missile development programme may now be receiving a higher priority and development of the [solid-fuelled] Ababil-100 short-range ballistic missile and possibly longer range systems may be moving ahead rapidly".

IRAQ CAN HIT EUROPE WITH WMD BY 2005

DOUGLAS BUSVINE February 25, 2001, Chicago Sun-Times SECTION: SUNDAY NEWS; Pg. 32 HEADLINE: Iraq a growing nuke threat; Europe could be in missile range soon //VT2002acsln

Saddam Hussein may be able to menace Iraq's neighbors with nuclear weapons in three years and fire a missile as far as Europe by 2005, according to an intelligence report made public Saturday.

Germany's Federal Intelligence Service has gathered evidence that Baghdad is also stepping up efforts to produce chemical weapons and has increased buying materials abroad to make biological weapons.

"It is clear that we have suspicions about Iraq," said a spokesman at the intelligence service's headquarters.

Reports on the threat Germany believes Iraq poses to the world came eight days after U.S. and British planes hit Iraqi air defense targets around Baghdad.

BY 2005 IRAQ WILL BE ABLE TO HIT EUROPE, AND THE CAPABILITY IS ENOUGH TO LEAD TO WMD BLACKMAIL

Avigdor Haselkorn, author of The Continuing Storm: Iraq, Poisonous Weapons and Deterrence. April 5, 2001 The Ottawa Citizen, SECTION: NEWS, Pg. A15 HEADLINE: World order faces techno terror: The post-Cold War peace is giving way to global anarchy //VT2002acsln

Moreover, by 2005, the German intelligence service expects Iraq to also possess ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000 kilometers and capable of hitting targets in Europe. Iran is also working on long-range missiles. Both countries would be able to blackmail the United States and its allies by holding European cities hostage. As U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told the Munich Conference on European Security Policy in February: "Terror weapons don't need to be fired. They just need to be in the hands of people who would threaten their use. And it alters behavior. We know that."