AFF/ROGUE STATES/GENERAL

MISSILE ATTACKS WILL BE USED TO BREAK APART THE DEVELOPED NATIONS

MISSILE STATES WILL HIT ALLIES IN ORDER TO BUST APART ALLIANCES AGAINST THEM

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

Alliance-busting Beyond targeting the population centres of countries whose governments have an active military involvement against them, an adversary such as North Korea or Iran could also target a country whose involvement is merely by affiliation. The latter category would include NATO countries that have no direct participation in actual military operations but who provide tacit or vocal support for an allied campaign. Targeting these countries may offer an adversary further leverage to resolve a conflict in its favour by encouraging dissent among West European countries who deem they have been sucked into a war in which their public has no desire to be militarily involved.

NORTH KOREA CAN UJSE MISSILES TO HOLD EUROPE AND THE USA HOSTAGE TO ITS DEMANDS

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

To North Korea, striking northern parts of Western Europe - especially the weaker partners of a diplomatic alliance against P'yongyang - could be more attractive than striking the USA. Although countries such as Denmark, Germany and the Scandinavian countries may not be militarily involved in operations on the Korean Peninsula, SSM strikes against the population centres of these countries could compel their governments to place tremendous diplomatic pressure on the USA to end the actions that are leading to missile attacks against them.

STRIKES AGAINST WEAKER ALLIANCE PARTNERS WILL FORCE USA TO BACK DOWN

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

At governmental level, striking terror at population centres of the weaker partners of a Western alliance could undermine the efforts of its more resilient and hard-line members to execute their military objectives. Pressure from the weaker partners could, for example, take the form of peace initiatives unsanctioned by the leading allied powers involved in the fighting. This could lead to unnecessary concessions being granted as part of a proposed ceasefire agreement to end the conflict more in line with the adversary's terms and conditions.

MISSILE STRIKES ON THE WEST WOULD FUEL POLITICAL PRESSURES TO END CONFLICTS AND MOBILIZE PEACE MOVEMENTS

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

It is difficult to conceive that there would be no increase in diplomatic pressure or urgency for a diplomatic resolution to a conflict if it were to involve missile strikes against Western Europe or North America, even if it meant making concessions. For governments facing unbearable pressure from their population to end a conflict and bring a halt to incoming missile attacks, such a route may well prove tempting - even if it meant capitulating to a certain degree. The peace movements in all Western countries concerned would certainly find wide support, placing further pressure on their respective governments to end the fighting. Combined with the threat of a non-conventional attack on Western Europe and North America, even those allied powers that fully supported military action could be forced to seek its early resolution.

IRAN AND IRAQ CAN ATTACK ITALY INSTEAD OF THE USA AND GET THE SAME RESULT

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

Similarly, Iran and possibly Iraq may want to widen any conflict beyond their direct protagonists. Even without possessing SSMs with the 3,800km range necessary to reach the UK, for example, Iran and Iraq would still gain tremendous leverage in any conflict with London by attacking key West European NATO countries that might not be direct participants in a given military action, such as Italy, Germany and France.

IN AN ERA OF CASUALTY FREE WARS, MISSILE STRIKES ON THE HOMELAND END ALL OF THAT

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

The key point is that in the era of what Western publics perceive as 'casualty-free wars', civilian injuries and fatalities caused by missile strikes on the homeland of a country far removed from the theatre of war would have far greater impact on the psyche of a country than military casualties in-theatre.

THREATS OF MISSILE ATTACKS WILL STOP WESTERN PUBLIC OPINION FROM RALLYING AROUND THE FLAG IN FAVOR OF MILITARY INTERVENTION

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

These two factors could be overlooked by the public, the majority of whom would have little prior knowledge or information on a given regime's SSM capabilities. Media references to an adversary's NBC weapon programmes would at the outset raise the public's anxiety, raising the prospect of a horrifying attack. The subsequent perception that an adversary possessed hundreds of long-range missiles, which would rain down and leave no escape, akin to the Cold War Soviet threat of all-out nuclear war, could then take hold. Given that the threat would exist because of military operations far removed from home, the challenge of getting people to 'rally around the flag' for a cause that does not involve protecting their territory from a land invasion would be extremely difficult.

PUBLIC FEAR OF MISSILE ATTACKS CAN BE CONTROLLED BY INFORMATION AND EDUCATION CAMPAIGNS

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

Western governments whose population centres are being attacked with conventionally armed SSMs and threatened with an NBC attack can prevent unnecessary fear and curtail the public's anxiety with advance planning and a carefully prepared strategy. From the outset governments must alleviate any fears that the missile threat from rogue states is the same as that posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. An effective and successful government policy towards its population would reduce public pressure on policymakers to back down and alter their military strategy in the theatre of war. This would allow military strategists to execute their operations with greater freedom than would otherwise be the case.

A MISSILE STRIKE WILL CREATE PUBLIC OPINION IN THE WEST WHICH WOULD BRING HEGEMONY TO A HALT

Ben Sheppard, Jane's Sentinel editor, The study of ballistic

missile proliferation formed part of his MSc in Strategic Studies. Jane's Intelligence Review October 1, 1999 HEADLINE: Ballistic missile proliferation: a flight of fantasy or fear? // ln-10/99-acs

It is generally accepted that public opinion - crucial for Western democracies to conduct large-scale power projection operations - can turn against the conduct of a war should a large number of military personnel be killed or injured, yet by the same token civilians casualties at home, far from the war zone, could have a greater impact on public support. Western governments would be held to ransom not by the military threat posed by the adversary launching conventionally armed missile strikes on their homeland but by the fear of their own people. The threat would spread far beyond the physical damage caused by conventional missile strikes as fear takes hold of people who are otherwise uninjured. Failure to win public support, allowing incorrect assumptions and sensationalist reporting to spread fear among the public, could force the West to back down and concede dangerous concessions to the adversary simply to appease a hostile public.