AFF/TERRORISM/AGROTERRORISM

AGROTERRORIST ATTACK WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS

AGRICULTURAL ATTACKS WITH BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS THREATEN NATIONAL SURVIVAL

Peter Chalk is an expert on transnational terrorism at the RAND Corporation, February 1, 2001 Jane's Intelligence Review HEADLINE: The US agricultural sector: a new target for terrorism? //VT2002acsln

Colonel Robert Kadlec, a US Air Force biowarfare expert, has somewhat ominously concluded that: "Agroterror offers an adversary the means to wage a potentially subtle yet devastating form of warfare, one which would impact on the political, social and economic sectors of society and potentially threaten national survival itself."

BIOLOGICAL ATTACK ON AGRICULTURE COULD CRIPPLE THE NATION

St. Louis Post-Dispatch January 11, 2001, SECTION: NEWS, Pg. A5 HEADLINE: PENTAGON SAYS GERM WEAPONS COULD TARGET U.S. RANCHES, FARMS //VT2002acsln

"Similar to the human population, the high health status of crop and livestock assets in the United States creates a great vulnerability to attack with biological agents," the Pentagon report said.

It said that highly infectious plant and animal microorganisms existed outside U.S. borders, and that some were readily transportable with little risk of detection.

A germ weapon attack on U.S. agriculture could disrupt the supply lines for food stocks, which in turn could undermine U.S. military readiness, the report said.

1408

AGROTERRORIST ATTAKS ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS

Floyd Horn, the USDA's top administrator, has testified on the threat of 'agroterrorism' before several Senate and Congressional hearings in the last few years. He believes that "a biological attack is quite plausible". According to Horn, the agents for such an attack are readily available, and the economic consequences significant. Public confidence in the government would almost certainly be shattered by such an attack.

AGROTERRORISM WILL LEAD TO ECONOMIC DESTABILIZATION

Economic destabilisation

Perhaps one of the most immediate effects of a major act of biological agroterrorism would be to create economic destabilisation. As Corrie Brown, a veterinary pathologist at the University of Georgia, argues: "A terrorist wishing to cause severe and reverberating financial consequences could simply introduce a foreign disease into American livestock, which would set off a chain reaction touching virtually every citizen's pocketbook."

The economic consequences of such an attack could be felt in three main ways:

- direct economic losses resulting from containment measures and the destruction of disease-ridden crops and livestock. In 1983-84, for instance, the US poultry industry was hit by a particularly pathogenic strain of avian influenza (AI). Eradicating the disease cost the government $63 million, contributing to a $349 million rise in turkey, chicken and egg prices in the first six months of the outbreak;

- indirect multiplier effects. The extent of these costs can be enormous. In the UK, for instance, the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s cost the UK government $9-14 billion in compensation paid to farmers affected by the slaughter of their cattle, and employees laid off in the dairy and beef industries; and l international costs arising from the institution of protective embargoes by major trading partners. Following the 1997 outbreak of FMD in Taiwan, for instance, an indefinite ban was imposed on the country's pork exports, causing Taipei's GDP to drop by 2% almost overnight.

AGROTERRORISM WILL LEAD TO MASS PANIC AND RURAL-URBAN MIGRATIONS

Beyond the immediate economic and political effects, bioterrorist assaults against agriculture have the potential to create mass panic and could, possibly, stimulate socially disruptive rural-urban migrations. Several animal diseases are zoonotic in nature, meaning that they have the ability to 'jump' species and affect humans. Principal among these are AI, the West Nile virus (WNV), Japanese encephalitis and BSE.

FOODBORNE ATTACK CAN CREATE MASS PANIC

MICHAEL OSTERHOLM, School of Public Health, Univ. of Minnesota, 2000; LIVING TERRORS: What America needs to know to survive the coming bioterrorist catastrophe //VT2002acs p. 90

Unintentional outbreaks already cause fear and discomfort; the knowledge that someone has intentionally poisoned people will create panic in the community. Public health officials must always be willing to consider that a foodborne disease outbreak could be the result of a terrorist act. Imagine government officials trying to convince the population that the food supply is safe when in fact the next attack is being delivered to grocery stores or restaurants as the pronouncement is being made. The high level of consumer confidence that the American food supply is the safest in the world -- confidence created and reinforced through billions of dollars spent on food safety, inspection, and regulation -- would be shattered.

DISEASED ANIMAL CARCASSES WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF FUTURE EPIDEMICS

On the other hand, the longer officials prevaricate and leave diseased carcasses out in the open, the higher the probability that they will act as a source for future epidemic - an equally unacceptable outcome.

MASS CULLING OF FARM ANIMALS WILL LEAD TO CONFLICTS WITH ANIMAL RIGHTS GROUPS

Apart from the risk of precipitating civil disturbances, there is also the possibility that mass culling, burning and incineration operations might spark acts of terrorism by animal rights and environmental extremists. The police authorities in California are very concerned at the prospects of such extremism, not least because of the state's history of radical, socially inspired activism and the existence of many sympathisers that express strong support for militant groups such as the Earth Liberation Front, the Animal Rights Militia and the Animal Liberation Front.