AFF/TERRORISM/AGROTERRORISM

AGROTERRORIST ATTACKS WILL TAKE PLACE

FOODBORNE AND WATERBORNE BIOTERRORIST ATTACKS WILL TAKE PLACE

Dr. Raymond Zilinskas Senior Scientist-in-Residence for the Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Oct. 20, 1999. Monterey Institute of International Studies CNS Reports ASSESSING THE THREAT OF BIOTERRORISM http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/zilin.htm //VT2002acsln

It is highly probable that biological attacks by terrorists or criminals utilizing foodborne and waterborne pathogens or toxic chemicals will occur in the next five years. Much like what has taken place in the past, these attacks are likely to cause casualties ranging in number from a few to hundreds. Examples of past attacks include the contamination of 10 salad bars by members of the Rajneeshee cult in Oregon in 1984, which caused 751 casualties (Török et al., 1997), and intentional food contamination in Texas in 1996, which harmed approximately 15 persons (Kolavic et al., 1997). Events such as these likely will take place with increasing frequency in the years ahead for two main reasons; unprotected, unmonitored salad bars and other food displays have become ubiquitous throughout the U.S. and the number of persons with at least a modicum of training in microbiology is ever increasing (although the population constituted by microbiologists probably is no more or less dishonest or unethical than other populations of professionals, a small proportion of it should be assumed to be willing to lend or sell its skills for terrorist or criminal purposes [see below]). There is nothing original about making this near certain prediction; it is done here mainly for the purpose of developing recommendations stated in the Conclusion.

AGROTERRORISM IS A NEW AND GROWING THREAT

Peter Chalk is an expert on transnational terrorism at the RAND Corporation, February 1, 2001 Jane's Intelligence Review HEADLINE: The US agricultural sector: a new target for terrorism? //VT2002acsln

One somewhat surprising addition to the 2001 budget is a line-item for $39.8 million to be apportioned to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), a federal body that has not in the past received much attention in US national security contingencies. Its inclusion reflects a growing concern that the agricultural sector, which accounts for roughly one sixth of US GDP - more if related food industries and suppliers are factored in - may become the target of a future act of chemical or biological (CB) terrorism. This concern has been generated by a growing realisation that CB attacks against livestock and the food chain are substantially easier and less risky to carry out than those directed at civilian targets.

AGROTERRORIST ATTACKS ARE ONLY A MATTER OF TIME

Despite the ease and potentially severe implications of carrying out biological attacks against agriculture, to date only a handful of actual or threatened incidents have occurred. If there are no real technological or psychological constraints to employing biological weapons against agriculture, why haven't terrorists made more use of this modus operandi, especially given its potential to cause significant economic, political and social upheaval? One reason could be that terrorists haven't thought through the full implications of deliberately targeting agricultural livestock and produce. According to this interpretation, it may only be a matter of time before more instances of this type of aggression take place.