AFF/NUCLEAR: NUCLEAR STAND-DOWN

HUGE RISK OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR EXISTS BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA

THE RICK OF NUCLEAR WAR BY ACCIDENT OR MISCALCULATION HAS INCREASED

The end of the bipolar confrontation has not removed the danger of nuclear catastrophe. In some respects the risk of use by accident or miscalculation has increased. Political upheaval or the weakening of state authority in a nuclear weapon state could cripple existing systems for ensuring the safe handling and control of nuclear weapons and weapons material, increasing the odds of a calamity. The same fate could befall other states or sub-state groups with a less developed nuclear weapon capability or those that seek to develop such a capability in the future.

4500 NUCLEAR WEAPONS REMAIN ON HAIR TRIGGER ALERT

The US and Russia have made progress in reducing nuclear weapons from their Cold War highs, but we still have a long way to go. There remain some 35,000 weapons in the world, and 4,500 of these are on "hair-trigger" alert.

CURRENT USA-RUSSIA SITUATION STILL RISKS NUCLEAR EXCHANGE

TEN YEARS AFTER the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia still court disaster by having thousands of nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert. Both states unnecessarily maintain dangerous launch-on-warning postures, which, in a time of crisis or perceived attack, give the president only minutes to decide whether to plunge the planet into nuclear war.

However, to achieve a meaningful and lasting shift away from Cold War hair-triggers, the United States and Russia should abandon the policy of "launch-on-warning."  This would enhance the security of the United States, Russia, and the world. The aim of U.S. policy should be to take most –  and eventually all – nuclear forces off hair-trigger alert.  To maintain confidence that neither side is "re-alerting" nuclear weapons in such a way as to be able to launch a theoretical surprise attack, both sides should be able to verify, with sufficient confidence the alert status of deployed, strategic nuclear forces.

CURRENT USA-RUSSIA NUCLEAR STAND OFF RISKS NUCLEAR DESTRUCTION BY ACCIDENT

Within minutes, the United States and Russia could still devastate each other with nuclear weapons.  The U.S.  nuclear war-fighting plan, for instance, includes strikes against approximately 2,300 targets in Russia and several hundred targets in China. One false warning, one mistake or one miscalculation could lead to a nuclear exchange.  This is prescription for disaster. Even an intermediate-sized launch of weapons from a single Russian submarine, hitting eight major U.S. cities with a total of 48 nuclear warheads each with a yield of 100 kilotons, would likely lead to the immediate deaths of over six million Americans. With nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert, and with increasing chances of misreading the other country's intentions, a false reading on a radar screen could turn into nuclear Armageddon.

THE RISK OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR IS HIGHER NOW THAN IN THE PAST

Since 1995, Russia's nuclear command and control systems have deteriorated dramatically. Perhaps more alarmingly, Russia's network of early-warning satellites is also collapsing. On average, the surviving payloads provide only "single-string" coverage, meaning there is no possibility of a launch warning being confirmed by another. And even that single-string coverage exists only for about half of every day. In other words, the risk of inadvertent nuclear war is much higher than it was in 1995. Since Russia maintains a huge strategic nuclear arsenal aimed at the United States, American national security depends on Russia's ability to maintain proper command and control of its nuclear forces.

CURRENT ALERT STATUS OF USA & RUSSIA NUCLEAR FORCES RISKS ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR

Just as they did during the Cold War, the United States and Russia maintain the ability to launch massive numbers of nuclear weapons on warning; that is, to fire their missiles after detecting an apparent hostile attack but before the arrival of enemy warheads. They each have about 2,000 nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert status – the equivalent of 100,000 Hiroshima bombs ready to be launched in minutes.

The danger of nuclear war in this environment is far from theoretical. On January 25, 1995, Russia was minutes away from launching an all-out nuclear war by mistake. The United States and Norway fired a research rocket from an island off of Norway's northwestern coast which borders Russia. The Russian radar image of the four-stage rocket resembled a U.S. submarine-launched, multi-stage nuclear missile.

Based on that image, the Russians believed they were under attack. For the first time ever, the electronic case used to order missile launches was activated for emergency use. President Boris Yeltsin was within minutes of ordering what he thought would be a retaliatory attack on the United States when a radar crew saw that the research rocket was headed out to sea.

CURRENT SITUATION RISKS AN ACCIDENTAL WAR WITH RUSSIA

The Atlanta Journal and Constitution, April 3, 2001: Editorial; Pg. 8A, HEADLINE: Cooperating with Russia best buy in nuclear safety //VT2002acsln

Despite the thawing of the Cold War and the disappearance of the Soviet Union as an ideological threat, the United States and Russia remain in a hair-trigger nuclear standoff. Lacking an aggressive disarmament effort, the two countries maintain a posture of mutually assured destruction as a deterrence against a first strike by either side. MAD it has always been, and mad it remains.

The United States and Russia each maintain upwards of 2,000 nuclear weapons on high alert, meaning they can take flight minutes after getting the signal; thousands of others wait in the wings. Neither side can recall or divert the missiles after they're launched.

According to Nunn, Russia is too poor to keep its missiles mobile, either on land or by submarine, making it less likely they can survive a first strike. Likewise, the country's early warning system is degraded. These conditions dramatically increase the possibility of a false warning or a launch-first, ask-questions-later policy.

RUSSIAN RISKS OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR ARE GROWING

Peter Grier, Staff writer, The Christian Science Monitor, October 19, 1999, SECTION: USA; Pg. 1 HEADLINE: New rules for the nuclear age // ln-10-29-99-acs

The much-feared scenario of nuclear theft from Russian arsenals has not come to pass. But troubling incidents are increasing. Two years ago, a Russian submariner shot seven seamates and barricaded himself in the torpedo bay of his nuclear attack submarine. At around the same time, the guard of a Russian facility containing 30 tons of plutonium shot others and escaped. "The list of incidents of this kind in Russia that we know about is chilling," writes Michael Krepon, president of the Henry L. Stimson Center, in a summary of world nuclear dangers.