AFF/NUCLEAR: MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR WAR RISKS HUGE LOSSES

WMD WAR IN WEST ASIA WILL SET CIVILIZATION BACK 100 YEARS

THE STATESMAN (INDIA) February 15, 2001 HEADLINE: Defuse West Asia powder keg //VT2002acsln

It is an almighty gamble and the cost of losing is indescrib-able. If there were a war in West Asia involving weapons of mass destruction, civili-sation would probably be set back 100 years.

Not only would it involve the physical destruction of millions of innocents, it would destroy the heartland and homeland of three of the world's great deistic religions and have repercussions that would tear at the soul of both Europe and North America, not least because they are now home to mill-ions of adher-ents to the Jewish and Islamic faiths.

NUCLEAR WAR SCENARIO IN THE MIDDLE EAST WOULD HAVE CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES, WITH EFFECTS EXTENDING OVER MANY GENERATIONS

Louis Rene Beres, Professor of International Law, Department of Political Science, Purdue University, Summer, 1999, Connecticut Journal of International Law 14 Conn. J. Int'l L. 27, article: Israel after fifty: the oslo agreements, international law and national survival //Ixnx hxm

Of course, the scale of this Report's assumptions is vastly greater than that which concerns us here, namely a plausible nuclear war scenario for Israel in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the likely kinds of physical and biological effects are still pertinent to our present inquiry. Some of these effects concern temperature changes; contamination of foods by radionuclides; disease epidemics in crops and in domesticated animals due to ionizing radiation; shortening of growing seasons; irreversible injuries to aquatic species; long-term carcinogenesis due to inhalation of plutonium particles; radiation-induced developmental anomalies in persons in utero at the time of detonations; increase in skin cancers; and increased incidence of genetic disease that would not be limited to the offspring of the exposed generation, but would extend over many generations.

MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR WAR WOULD LEAD TO HORRIFIC CONSEQUENCES

Louis Rene Beres, Professor of International Law, Department of Political Science, Purdue University, Summer, 1999, Connecticut Journal of International Law 14 Conn. J. Int'l L. 27, article: israel after fifty: the oslo agreements, international law and national survival //Ixnx hxm

Throughout the Middle East region affected by nuclear exchanges, an enormous health threat would be created by tens of thousands of rotting, unburied corpses. In many areas radiation levels would be so hi high that corpses could remain untouched for weeks or even months. With transportation destroyed, survivors weakened and myriad post-war reconstruction tasks to be performed, corpse, disposal would be remarkably difficult. And in order to bury the dead, areas much larger than Israel's now destroyed cities could be required for the cemetery. An enemy state might launch a nuclear first-strike against Israel. In such an event, Jerusalem would certainly respond, to the extent possible, with a nuclear retaliatory strike. If the enemy state's firststrikes were to involve other forms of unconventional weapons, for example, chemical or biological weapons, Israel might launch a nuclear reprisal. This would depend, in large measure, upon Jerusalem's expectations of follow-on aggression and on its associated calculations of comparative damage-limitation.

NUCLEAR WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST WOULD BE UNPREDICTABLE AND DEADLY

Louis Rene Beres, Professor of International Law, Department of Political Science, Purdue University, Summer, 1999, Connecticut Journal of International Law 14 Conn. J. Int'l L. 27, article: israel after fifty: the oslo agreements, international law and national survival //Ixnx hxm

Significantly, in assessing the likely effects of a nuclear war involving Israel, it will be important to look beyond individual effects in isolation. This means that the interactions between individual effectscould produce calamitous and still unforeseen consequences. Recognizing this some years ago, a publication of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War, Some Perspectives, attempted to project the after effects of a major nuclear war. Although individual consequences of a nuclear war could be accurately assessed, the interactive effects of such factors were indeterminable. The study concluded therefore that massive nuclear war is as unpredictable as it is deadly.

NUCLEAR WAR IN ISRAEL WOULD HAVE REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES

Louis Rene Beres, Professor of International Law, Department of Political Science, Purdue University, Summer, 1999, Connecticut Journal of International Law 14 Conn. J. Int'l L. 27, article: israel after fifty: the oslo agreements, international law and national survival //Ixnx hxm

Certain of the biological and ecological effects of a nuclear war would be felt by other states in the region. Radioactive fallout does not respect political boundaries. Because of the manner in which nuclear explosions behave in the atmosphere, the altitude reached by the mushroom-shaped cloud would depend upon the force of the explosion. For yields in the low-kiloton range, the cloud would remain in the lower atmosphere, and its effects would be entirely local. That is, these effects would not extend beyond the boundaries of the combatant states. But for yields exceeding 30 kilotons, pail of the cloud of radioactive debris would "punch" into the stratosphere, affecting non-combatant states as well.

EVEN A LIMITED NUCLEAR EXCHANGE IN ISRAEL WOULD DESTROY ITS SOCIETY

Louis Rene Beres, Professor of International Law, Department of Political Science, Purdue University, Summer, 1999, Connecticut Journal of International Law 14 Conn. J. Int'l L. 27, article: israel after fifty: the oslo agreements, international law and national survival //lxnx hxm

Israel's complex network of interlocking and interdependent exchange systems would be shattered. Virtually everyone would be deprived of the basic means of livelihood. Emergency police and fire services would be decimated and stressed to wholly ineffectual levels. All systems dependent upon electrical power would cease to function. Severe trauma would occasion widespread disorientation and psychological disorders for which there would be no therapeutic services. Normal society would cease to function. The pestilence of unrestrained murder and banditry would augment the pestilence of plague and epidemics. With the passage of time, many of the survivors would expect an increased incidence of degenerative diseases and various kinds of cancer. They would also expect premature death, impairment of vision, and increased sterility. Among the survivors of Hiroshima, for example, an increased incidence of leukemia and cancer of the lung, stomach, breast, ovary, uterus, and cervix has been widely documented.